Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, believes China could have its own advanced lithography systems by around 2030, a forecast that contrasts with the current state of its semiconductor manufacturing industry. The country has made progress on domestic lithography equipment, but there is still a considerable gap versus ASML’s most advanced systems, especially in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.
China’s lithography race in 20 seconds
- Jensen Huang places China’s possible arrival at advanced systems of its own around 2030.
- SMEE already produces 193-nanometer scanners for roughly 90 nm processes.
- China has developed immersion equipment targeting 28 nm, though mass production still needs validation.
- EUV technology requires solving far more complex optics, alignment, metrology, and wafer-stage problems.
- Huang’s forecast is an estimate, not confirmation that China has already reached that capability.
Huang made the remarks during an interview with The All-In Podcast, in which NVIDIA’s chief executive placed China’s possible arrival at advanced lithography capabilities around 2030. His argument rests on the country’s pace of industrialization and its ability to bring technologies to mass production.
That forecast, however, needs to be separated from the current state of Chinese technology. Domestic manufacturer Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) has lithography equipment capable of producing chips on mature nodes, while development of more advanced immersion systems is still in an industrialization and validation phase.
The gap is even wider when it comes to EUV, the technology used to manufacture some of the most advanced semiconductors. China is working on components related to this technology, but there is no public evidence that it has managed to produce a complete EUV scanner comparable to ASML’s most advanced commercial systems.
SMEE advances in DUV, but mass production is the challenge
Lithography is one of the most complex steps in semiconductor manufacturing. Systems project extremely small patterns onto a silicon wafer using light, and their precision largely determines how small a chipmaker’s structures can be.
China has built its own capability in this area, although there is still a significant technology gap versus the most advanced Western equipment.
Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, known as SMEE, is currently one of China’s leading manufacturers of lithography equipment. The company can produce in volume a deep ultraviolet (DUV) scanner using an argon fluoride laser with a 193-nanometer wavelength.
That type of equipment can be used to manufacture chips at roughly 90 nanometers, a node far removed from the processes currently used for the highest-density semiconductors.
The next leap is immersion DUV lithography. This type of system uses liquid between the lens and the wafer to increase exposure resolution. According to reporting by Tom’s Hardware, SMEE has developed a scanner capable of working with 28-nanometer processes, but there is still no equivalent public evidence that this equipment is being manufactured in large quantities and widely used for chip production.
There have also been reports of the delivery of the first immersion scanner from a Chinese company tied to this sector. However, delivering a machine and using it reliably in a semiconductor fab are two different stages.
Lithography equipment needs lengthy qualification processes before entering high-volume production. Fabs have to verify its precision, stability, throughput, and compatibility with the rest of the manufacturing steps.
That’s why, even if the first machines of this kind reach Chinese manufacturers during 2026, their widespread use in production could take several more years.
The jump to EUV is far more demanding
The situation becomes even more complex moving from DUV to EUV, short for Extreme Ultraviolet.
EUV uses light with a 13.5-nanometer wavelength and requires a combination of technologies that includes a specialized light source, extremely high-precision optics, wafer and mask positioning systems, alignment, overlay control between layers, and metrology.
ASML is currently the leading manufacturer of EUV systems for advanced semiconductor production. Its machines incorporate components from an extensive international supplier chain and have required decades of development.
China has made progress on some of the components needed to build its own EUV technology. There have been reports on the development of laser-generated plasma sources capable of producing light at the required 13.5-nanometer wavelength.
Achieving that light source, however, is not the same as having an operational EUV scanner for manufacturing chips. The complete system has to integrate every component with extremely high precision and maintain that precision throughout lengthy industrial processes.
That is one of the main difficulties for any manufacturer trying to develop a complete alternative.
2030 is a forecast, not a confirmed date
Huang believes China can reach advanced lithography capabilities by around 2030. During the interview, he explained that the country has substantial industrial production capacity and that, in his view, developing these technologies is a matter of time.
The statement doesn’t mean there is currently a Chinese machine equivalent to ASML’s most advanced systems, nor that there is a confirmed industrial timeline for achieving one.
The evolution of DUV equipment itself shows the scale of the challenge. If a manufacturer is still developing and qualifying immersion systems capable of working around 28 nanometers, going from there to an EUV platform ready for high-volume manufacturing requires solving multiple additional technological problems.
Comparisons between generations of equipment can also be misleading. Matching the capabilities of an older generation of lithography systems doesn’t mean reaching the level of a manufacturer’s current products when that manufacturer keeps developing new generations.
So even if China manages to produce a functional immersion DUV machine, that wouldn’t automatically mean it has reached technological parity with ASML’s current commercial systems.
The situation is also shaped by Beijing’s strategic interest in reducing its dependence on foreign suppliers. China’s semiconductor industry is developing domestic alternatives at different stages of the manufacturing chain, from production equipment to materials and components.
Lithography is especially relevant because it’s one of the hardest points to replace. A domestic supply chain needs not only to develop a machine, but to make it run reliably, deliver enough throughput, and integrate into fabs that produce large volumes of chips.
Chip manufacturing requires far more than a machine
Developing a lithography scanner can’t be analyzed in isolation. An advanced fab needs to combine it with suitable materials, photomasks, measurement systems, deposition and etching equipment, inspection tools, and control software.
The ability to maintain precision across successive chip layers is also decisive. Alignment and pattern overlay have to stay within extremely tight tolerances.
With EUV, these demands increase even further. The light source, mirrors, vacuum chamber, positioning stages, and control systems all have to work as a coordinated whole.
That’s why the path from a prototype to a machine used daily in a high-volume fab can be long. The experience built up by equipment makers and their suppliers is an important part of that equation.
China is trying to shorten that path through investment, research, and the development of a domestic industrial chain. Huang believes the speed at which the country can bring a technology to production could make major advances possible before 2030.
The outcome will depend on whether the initial prototypes and equipment can become reliable, competitive production systems. For now, the public evidence shows progress in DUV and in EUV-related components, but not a Chinese EUV lithography platform comparable to ASML’s most advanced commercial machines.
Huang’s 2030 date should therefore be understood as a forecast about China’s technological evolution, not an announcement of a machine that has already been developed or a product with confirmed industrial availability.
Frequently asked questions
What has Jensen Huang said about Chinese lithography?
NVIDIA’s CEO believes China could reach advanced lithography systems of its own around 2030 and argues that its industrial capacity could speed up that development.
What lithography equipment does China currently produce?
SMEE produces 193-nanometer DUV scanners used for roughly 90 nm processes. Immersion DUV systems aimed at 28 nm processes have also been developed, although their large-scale production and use still need validation.
Does China already have an EUV machine comparable to ASML’s?
There is no public evidence that China has produced a complete EUV scanner comparable to ASML’s most advanced commercial systems. Developing an EUV light source is only one part of the technology required.
What would China need to solve to manufacture EUV equipment?
Among other things, it would need to integrate an EUV source, precision optics, positioning and alignment systems, metrology, and other components capable of working reliably in high-volume production.
