Gartner forecasts that 55% of companies will begin proof-of-concept (PoC) testing with VMware alternatives by 2029, compared with the 25% the analyst firm expects to do so in 2026. The figure points to a rise in evaluations of other hybrid infrastructure platforms, but it doesn’t mean that share of companies will actually abandon VMware.
VMware and its alternatives in 20 seconds
- Gartner puts at 55% the share of companies that will start PoCs with VMware alternatives by 2029.
- The forecast builds on an estimated 25% for 2026.
- VMware still appears as a Leader in Gartner’s 2026 Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure.
- The firm also points to shifts in pricing, licensing, and customer perception.
- Testing another platform doesn’t necessarily mean completing a migration of the existing infrastructure.
The difference between evaluating an alternative and actually migrating an infrastructure is especially relevant in this market. A company that has spent years running its workloads on VMware doesn’t just have to swap out the hypervisor. A migration can touch storage, networking, backups, disaster recovery, monitoring, automation, and operational procedures.
There’s also a less visible factor: the knowledge IT teams have built up over time. Administrators know how workloads behave, where the dependencies sit, and how to respond to incidents. Replacing the platform also means carrying much of that knowledge over to a new environment.
Gartner is indeed picking up on a market in motion. In its 2026 Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure, published in September, the firm includes Broadcom, VMware’s parent company, alongside AWS, Microsoft, Nutanix, Oracle, and other vendors. The category covers platforms designed to deliver a hybrid infrastructure experience spanning data centers, public cloud, and other environments.
The 55% Figure Is About Testing, Not Completed Migrations
Gartner’s forecast states that 55% of companies will begin proof-of-concept testing of alternative products to their VMware-based deployments by 2029. The wording itself matters: it refers to the start of PoCs, not finished migrations or definitive departures from VMware.
A proof of concept lets an organization check whether a technology can meet its needs before making a broader decision. In this case, it can be used to evaluate performance, manageability, compatibility, costs, storage integration, or the ability to run existing workloads.
Gartner also notes that the server virtualization market is going through a major shake-up, and that infrastructure and operations leaders are re-evaluating their technology options for both current and future workloads.
The 55% forecast should be read within that evaluation process. A company can test an alternative and keep VMware for years. It can also run different platforms depending on the application type, or refresh part of its infrastructure while it studies other options.
That’s why the figure doesn’t mean 55% of companies will have migrated off VMware by 2029.
The Cost of Switching Weighs as Much as the Features
Pricing and the licensing model are among the factors pushing some organizations to reconsider their VMware investments. Gartner published an analysis in April 2026 specifically on the shift toward VMware alternatives, noting that changes to products, pricing, and partner relationships were accelerating interest in other platforms.
The firm has also noted that, since Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware, changes to licensing and pricing have led customers to report significant increases at renewal. In an analysis published in 2025, Gartner said some renewals had multiplied the previously paid price by three to four times, though that’s a reference based on the clients the firm analyzed, not a universal increase applied to every VMware customer.
Gartner has also published a specific guide covering seven VMware alternatives, including Nutanix, which recently topped Gartner’s own ranking for server virtualization platforms, public infrastructure as a service, Microsoft Hyper-V and Azure Local, Red Hat OpenShift Virtualization, HPE Morpheus VM Essentials, and Oracle Linux.
Interest in these platforms doesn’t mean all of them are ready to replace VMware in every deployment. Gartner’s own virtualization research looks at capabilities such as storage, networking, security, management, availability and recovery, operating-system support, disaster recovery, AI workloads, and legacy applications.
VMware Still Holds a Relevant Position
The other data point accompanying the 55% forecast is that Gartner still places Broadcom (VMware) as a Leader in its 2026 Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure. The evaluation also covers AWS, Microsoft, Nutanix, Oracle, and other vendors.
That helps put the market’s situation in context. The rise in testing of alternatives doesn’t mean VMware has stopped being a relevant platform. In fact, Gartner continues to highlight its virtualization technology, its sovereign cloud ecosystem, and its AI-oriented infrastructure capabilities as strengths.
At the same time, the firm captures customer concerns about communication, business practices, and support. In its research on server virtualization platforms, Gartner also notes that some customers have reported cost increases tied to the shift to per-core subscriptions and less flexibility in negotiations.
The market, then, isn’t facing an automatic replacement. There’s a mix of technical, economic, and operational factors that each company will have to weigh against its own infrastructure.
Migrating an Enterprise Platform Takes Far More Than Swapping Hypervisors
The real challenge shows up once a PoC turns into an actual migration. Virtual machines are only one part of the infrastructure. Companies need to check how virtual networks, security policies, storage, backups, monitoring tools, automation, and recovery mechanisms carry over.
They also need to evaluate applications that depend on VMware-specific features, and check the compatibility of the operating systems and tools used in production.
Disaster recovery is another especially sensitive point. A platform can work fine during testing and still require redesigning the procedures used to restore services after an incident.
That’s why a PoC can be a first step rather than necessarily an exit decision. The real cost of a migration includes engineering work, training, testing, operational changes, and the risks tied to moving critical workloads.
Gartner’s forecast thus points to a period of greater experimentation around VMware. The 55% figure reflects that more organizations may devote resources to checking which alternatives fit their environments, but it still leaves open the question of how many will go on to complete a migration.
For infrastructure teams, the decision isn’t limited to comparing features across hypervisors. It also means calculating what it costs to keep the current platform, what replacing it would take, and what operational risks the switch introduces.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Gartner Expect 55% of Companies to Abandon VMware?
No. The forecast indicates that 55% of companies could begin proof-of-concept testing with VMware alternatives by 2029. A PoC doesn’t mean a migration will later be completed.
What Percentage Does Gartner Expect for 2026?
Gartner’s forecast starts at 25% of companies beginning proof-of-concept testing with alternatives in 2026, rising to 55% by 2029.
Does Gartner Still Consider VMware a Relevant Platform?
Yes. Gartner places Broadcom (VMware) as a Leader in its 2026 Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure, and also includes it among the vendors evaluated in its research on server virtualization platforms.
What VMware Alternatives Is the Market Evaluating?
Gartner identifies options such as Nutanix, public infrastructure as a service, Microsoft Hyper-V and Azure Local, Red Hat OpenShift Virtualization, HPE Morpheus VM Essentials, and Oracle Linux, among others. Fit depends on each organization’s specific workloads and needs.
