The competition to dominate the 2-nanometer manufacturing process in the semiconductor industry intensifies in the second half of 2025, with TSMC leading in performance, followed by Intel and Samsung. However, there are significant differences in their respective yields.
According to analyst John Vinh from KeyBanc Capital Markets, Taiwanese manufacturer TSMC is currently leading the race thanks to its N2 process, which has already achieved a 65% yield, meaning the percentage of functional chips per wafer. Coming in second is Intel, with its 18A process, which has improved its yield to 55%, surpassing Samsung’s estimated 40% in its SF2 process.
Intel speeds up with 18A and aims to compete with TSMC
Intel remains committed to launching its first 2nm processor, Panther Lake, by late 2025. This chip, based on the 18A technology, represents a key step for both its product division and Intel Foundry Services (IFS), its third-party foundry business.
Vinh indicates that Intel is on track to reach yields between 65% and 70% in mass production, which would position IFS ahead of Samsung Foundry and close to TSMC’s leadership, which could reach 75%.
In addition to Panther Lake, Intel is preparing a variant called 18A-P, targeted at IFS customers, with mass production expected to begin in the second half of 2026. Although there have been rumors that Intel might skip this variant and move directly to Intel 14A, analyst opinion considers this unlikely as 14A isn’t expected for mass production until 2027 or even 2028, while 18A-P would be competitive against TSMC’s N2.
Samsung lags behind… for now
Meanwhile, Samsung is maintaining its SF2 process, but with an estimated yield around 40%, placing it behind its two main competitors. Despite advances in advanced packaging and GAA (Gate-All-Around) technology, South Korea’s firm faces challenges in reaching performance levels that enable profitable commercial production in the coming quarters.
What does this mean for the industry?
Yield is one of the most critical factors in cutting-edge chip manufacturing. It not only determines the economic viability of a technology node but also directly impacts supply capacity, pricing, and competitiveness in key segments such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and edge computing.
As 2nm nodes approach volume production, TSMC’s dominance remains strong, but Intel is closing the gap, reinforcing its strategy to regain lost ground over recent years. The development of the 18A process is particularly relevant for its foundry business, which aims to attract large external clients as part of CEO Pat Gelsinger’s vision to revitalize Intel’s technological leadership.
The race for 2 nanometers isn’t just a technological competition; it’s also geopolitical, strategic, and economic. With increasingly demanding applications in generative AI, automotive, and high-performance computing, advancements by each manufacturer could reshape the global semiconductor landscape in the coming years.
For now, TSMC leads, Intel is catching up, and Samsung is trying not to fall behind. But in a sector where changes are measured in nanometers, any advantage can vanish with the next technological leap.
via: Semiecosystem