Personal computer sales in the United States stagnated in the second quarter of the year, decreasing by 1.4% year-over-year to 18.6 million units, according to the latest data from Canalys (part of Omdia). The report reflects a market in transition: while companies drove purchases during the full adoption of AI-capable PCs, consumers remain cautious about their tech spending.
Inventories and the transition to Windows 11 define the quarter
The report notes that manufacturers have been adjusting high inventory levels accumulated at the start of 2025, when shipments were brought forward to mitigate the impact of planned tariffs. Despite this correction, Canalys forecasts that 2025 and 2026 will be years of moderate growth (3% annually), mainly supported by migration to Windows 11 and the end of support for Windows 10 in October.
In the enterprise segment, shipments increased by 4% in the quarter, offsetting weakness in the consumer market. Microsoft and its OEM partners are ramping up awareness campaigns about the need to upgrade devices, with a special focus on highlighting the added value of AI PCs.
Companies adopt AI, but cautiously
Greg Davis, a Canalys analyst, emphasizes that AI adoption in the corporate environment has been a strong success in the US. According to the US Census Business Trends and Outlook survey, corporate AI adoption has doubled in the past two years and increased by an additional 50% in 2025.
However, growth is beginning to show signs of slowing among large corporations, concerned about the so-called pilot purgatory, meaning proof-of-concept projects that never fully integrate into workflows. In this context, PC manufacturers with hardware designed for AI will need to demonstrate clear return on investment regarding productivity and efficiency gains.
Weak consumer spending due to inflation and employment
The opposite side is led by consumers. The combination of persistent inflation and weak employment reports has prompted many households to prioritize essential expenses such as food and energy over technology purchases.
Although Windows 10 support is ending soon, individual users prefer to extend the lifespan of their devices and delay upgrades until performance drops significantly or hardware fails.
Projections through 2027: a volatile market
Canalys’ forecast for the US PC market (excluding tablets) shows uneven growth across segments:
- Consumer: a decline of 3.9% in 2025, a rebound of 5.4% in 2026, and another contraction of 2.8% in 2027.
- Commercial: a strong increase of 8.3% in 2025, moderate growth of 3.9% in 2026, and a decline of 8.3% in 2027.
- Government: an increase of 9.9% in 2025, followed by a slowdown.
- Education: stability in 2025, a slight dip in 2026, and a rebound of 9.5% in 2027.
Overall, shipments will rise from 71 million units in 2025 to 73.5 million in 2026, before dropping again to 70.8 million in 2027.
Manufacturer rankings: Apple stands out
In the vendor distribution during Q2 2025:
- HP maintains the lead with a 25.6% share, despite a shipment decline of 4.8%.
- Dell ranks second with a 23.5% share, also down by 3.5%.
- Lenovo grew by 5.1%, reaching a 18.4% share.
- Apple experienced the largest growth among major players: +15.5% YoY, with a 14.4% share.
- Acer saw a sharp decline of 10.5%.
- The “others” category also fell by 10.2%.
Together, the U.S. market reached 18.6 million units, compared to 18.9 million last year.
Conclusion
The US PC market is experiencing a phase of stagnation with ups and downs: while business and public-sector demand remains steady, consumers are delaying purchases amid a complex economic environment. The transition to Windows 11, tariffs pressure, and the emergence of AI PCs will shape the trajectory of the coming quarters.
The big question is whether the sector can leverage AI adoption as a true growth engine or if it will become trapped in a cycle of pilot projects with little real impact on productivity.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why did the US PC market decline in Q2 2025?
Primarily due to inventory corrections and weak consumer spending, which offset the strength of the enterprise sector.
Which segment drove PC sales in 2025?
The commercial segment, with a 4% growth, driven by the transition to Windows 11 and the adoption of AI-capable PCs.
Which manufacturer experienced the most growth this quarter?
Apple, with a 15.5% increase in shipments and a 14.4% share, outpacing HP and Dell.
What is the market outlook through 2027?
Moderate growth is expected in 2025 and 2026, followed by a contraction in 2027, with volumes near 71 million units annually.
via: canalys