A potential manufacturing agreement between Apple and Intel could have far-reaching consequences beyond Cupertino and Santa Clara. If confirmed and scaled, it would not only signal diversification for Apple and a strategic victory for Intel Foundry but might also open a new wave of orders for major European semiconductor equipment providers, with ASML, ASMI, and BE Semiconductor Industries (Besi) among the potential beneficiaries.
The news originates from reports published by The Wall Street Journal and picked up by Reuters, indicating that Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to produce certain chips intended for Apple devices. Details remain limited: it’s not confirmed which products would be included, what technology node would be used, or what volume Intel would actually handle. But the very possibility of Apple shifting part of its production to Intel has already prompted financial analyses across the entire supply chain.
Bank of America, through analyst Didier Scemama, estimates such a contract could amount to around $10 billion over several years. In the base case, chips would mainly target Mac and iPad. In a more ambitious scenario, the introduction of the iPhone would dramatically change the business scale, forcing Intel to accelerate investments in advanced capacity.
ASML, ASMI, and Besi: the indirect winners
The most interesting insights come from the Netherlands. According to Bank of America’s analysis, Intel might require at least €1.8 billion worth of equipment from ASML if the contract with Apple includes only part of the product lineup, such as Mac and iPad. If the agreement also covers chips for the iPhone, ASML’s orders could rise to €4.6 billion, roughly equivalent to 15 EUV tools.
ASML is nearly indispensable for any expansion into advanced nodes. The Dutch company is the sole global supplier of EUV systems, which are essential for manufacturing the most sophisticated chips with high precision and performance. If Intel aims to produce for Apple with competitive processes alongside TSMC, it will need cutting-edge lithography equipment and sufficient capacity to handle significant volumes.
ASMI could also benefit. BofA estimates an additional revenue potential of about €568 million in the base scenario and up to €1.4 billion in the broader scenario. ASMI specializes in key atomic deposition processes and technologies necessary for advanced chip manufacturing, so increased capacity at Intel could lead to greater demand for its equipment.
Besi enters the picture via advanced packaging and hybrid bonding. According to the same analysis, if the contract includes advanced packaging, Intel could order around 15 hybrid bonding machines. If Apple also transfers some iPhone chips to Intel and packs include advanced bonding, the order could reach 182 units—far beyond the 80 units BofA already expected Intel to purchase between 2024 and 2030.
| Scenario | Estimated Scope | Potential Impact on ASML | Potential Impact on ASMI | Potential Impact on Besi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Chips for Mac and iPad | €1.8 billion in equipment | €568 million additional revenue | 15 hybrid bonding machines if packaging included |
| Optimistic | Also chips for iPhone | €4.6 billion and about 15 EUV tools | €1.4 billion additional revenue | Up to 182 hybrid bonding machines |
| Risk | Limited or phased agreement | Smaller, sparser orders | Lower industry traction | Demand depending on chosen packaging |
Apple seeks diversification; Intel needs to validate its foundry
For Apple, Intel’s appeal isn’t solely about price or capacity. The company has relied for years on TSMC for its most advanced chips—a relationship that has been highly successful but also concentrates geopolitical and operational risk in Taiwan. In the current US-China tensions and with AI demand pushing TSMC’s capacity, having an American alternative could be strategic.
This wouldn’t be a step back in the classic sense. Apple has moved beyond Intel processors in Macs, now using Apple Silicon made by TSMC. An eventual deal with Intel wouldn’t mean returning to Intel’s standard CPUs, but rather using Intel as a contract manufacturer for chips designed by Apple. That distinction is key: Apple would retain control over design while diversifying manufacturing sources.
For Intel, the reputational impact would be significant. Its foundry business needs to demonstrate it can attract top-tier clients. Manufacturing for Apple would serve as a major validation, given Apple’s reputation as one of the most demanding semiconductor buyers worldwide in terms of performance, energy efficiency, volume, confidentiality, and supply quality.
The arrival of Lip-Bu Tan leading Intel and the increasing influence of the US government in the company reinforce the narrative of industrial rebuilding. Washington aims to regain advanced manufacturing capacity on US soil. An Apple-Intel deal would fit perfectly into that agenda, though its technical and economic viability will depend on Intel’s ability to meet timelines, yields, and costs.
The iPhone makes the difference
The biggest variable is the iPhone. Making chips for Mac or iPad would already be a victory, but the volume of the iPhone is on a different level. Apple sells hundreds of millions of units annually, and any substantial participation in that supply chain would prompt Intel to invest heavily in capacity, lithography, packaging, and performance control at a much larger scale.
That’s why BofA’s figures vary so much between scenarios. Without the iPhone, the deal might serve as an entry point. With it, it becomes an industrial transformation. The jump from 15 to 182 hybrid bonding machines for Besi illustrates how advanced packaging is becoming as strategic as lithography itself. In modern chips, shrinking transistors isn’t enough; assembling chiplets, memory, interconnects, and components efficiently is also critical.
This relates to another sector trend. AI has strained TSMC’s advanced packaging capabilities, especially with technologies like CoWoS. Intel has been developing its own packaging solutions to attract clients needing alternatives. If Apple entrusted Intel not only with manufacturing but also with part of the advanced assembly, the outlook for providers like Besi would become even more positive.
A tentative, uncertain agreement
Market enthusiasm should be tempered with caution. Neither Apple nor Intel has publicly detailed the scope of the agreement. It’s unclear if Intel would handle a small portion of less-critical chips, produce low-end processors, participate in specific products, or if the partnership would depend on achieving certain technical milestones before expanding.
Additionally, TSMC’s position remains strong. The Taiwanese manufacturer continues to be Apple’s main partner, with a very solid foothold in advanced nodes. Transitioning semiconductor suppliers is a lengthy process that involves testing, validation, ramp-up, and strict quality controls.
Nevertheless, the potential deal highlights how the chip landscape is reshaping. Apple is seeking more options. Intel needs large external clients. the US seeks domestic advanced manufacturing. ASML, ASMI, and Besi could benefit from expansion in capacity. Europe, despite lacking a foundry at TSMC’s level, holds a decisive role in the machines enabling advanced manufacturing.
The semiconductor industry has become too strategic to depend solely on one region, technology, or supplier. If Apple moves part of its supply chain to Intel—even on a limited basis—the message will be clear: diversification is no longer just a defensive move but an industrial priority. Every new advanced wafer produced outside Taiwan will rely on what Europe excels at—machines that make such manufacturing possible.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have Apple and Intel officially confirmed the agreement?
No complete public details have been confirmed by either company. Reports suggest a preliminary understanding for Intel to manufacture some chips for Apple devices.
Which European companies could benefit?
ASML, ASMI, and Besi are potential winners if Intel expands capacity for Apple, requiring more lithography, deposition, and advanced packaging equipment.
Why is ASML so important?
Because ASML is the only EUV machine manufacturer, essential for producing advanced chips with latest-generation processes.
What changes if the agreement includes the iPhone?
The volume would increase dramatically. According to Bank of America estimates reported by Dutch media, Intel might need up to €4.6 billion in ASML equipment and up to 182 hybrid bonding machines from Besi.
via: deaandeelhouder.nl