The semiconductor industry has just crossed a threshold that, by itself, doesn’t change the physics of chips… but does set a new tone for the industry: for the first time, the global market is expected to have exceeded $200 billion in revenue in a single quarter. According to an analysis by Omdia, Q3 2025 (3Q25) closed with $216.3 billion, a 14.5% jump quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), well above typical seasonal patterns.
This figure matters for two reasons. First, symbolically: the sector is entering a new level of “normal” quarterly scale. Second, practically: if this pace continues, the full year could surpass $800 billion, solidifying 2025 as a period of broad expansion—not just a repeat of a peak concentrated in a few product families.
A quarter that defies seasonal norms
Traditionally, the third quarter tends to be positive but not exceptionally so. Omdia notes that historically, 3Q typically grows around 7% on average, and the previous consensus for 3Q25 was about 5%. The actual result—14.5%—almost doubles those references, suggesting that the surge was not just a calendar effect, but a broader demand acceleration beyond expectations.
This nuance is important because the market had been in a phase where the narrative was very binary: “AI + memory” versus everything else. While AI remains the dominant driver, Omdia indicates that in 2025, growth is being more evenly distributed across multiple categories than in previous quarters.
Beyond “It’s all NVIDIA and HBM”
In 2024, the sector made history by surpassing $650 billion annually, but with a particularity: much of that growth was concentrated in NVIDIA and major memory manufacturers. Omdia suggests that, excluding NVIDIA and memory chips, the rest of the market barely grew about 1% that year, held back by inventory adjustments and weaker demand.
Looking ahead to 2025, the outlook shifts: the market is not only growing significantly overall, but the “rest” is also gaining momentum. Omdia estimates that in 3Q25, the overall growth exceeds 14% QoQ, and even excluding NVIDIA and memory, growth would be around 9%. In other words, the cycle is broadening.
The four giants account for over 40% of the pie
If someone needed a quick snapshot of the current moment, it’s reflected in the quarterly revenue ranking: NVIDIA and the three major memory companies—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—top the market in 3Q25. Together, these four companies likely account for more than 40% of the sector’s global revenues.
This data point has a dual implication. On one hand, it confirms that the “AI manufacturing pipeline” is pulling all its components: accelerators, interconnects, and especially advanced memory. On the other hand, it highlights the structural risk of concentration: when a large portion of the market depends on just a few product lines and providers, any bottleneck—capacity, advanced packaging, yields, geopolitical restrictions, energy—becomes magnified.
Conventional DRAM also climbs: AI isn’t just about HBM
One of the most attention-grabbing nuances in the industry is that the pressure isn’t limited to HBM. Omdia states that demand for conventional DRAM is also picking up as AI inference scales, fueling a short-term rally in prices. The analyst predicts that Q4 could set a new historical revenue record, and this strength might extend into 2026.
In operational terms, it’s not just about having more GPUs; it’s about more complete systems running, sustained inference loads, and data centers adjusting their balance between cost per token, latency, and availability. All of this drives memory, storage, and other components that turn accelerators into usable platforms.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean that the semiconductor market exceeds $200 billion in a quarter?
It indicates that the industry has reached an unprecedented demand and revenue scale in just three months, typically signaling a confluence of bullish cycles, strong pricing in key segments, and accelerated tech adoption such as AI.
Why was 3Q25 so “anomalous” compared to usual seasonality?
Because the quarterly growth (14.5%) greatly exceeded historical patterns for Q3, pointing to an extra demand impulse broader than expected.
Does everything still depend on AI and memory?
They remain the main drivers, but Omdia describes that in 2025, growth is more evenly spread, and even excluding NVIDIA and memory, the rest of the market is growing strongly.
What are the implications of four companies accounting for over 40% of revenues?
The market is highly concentrated among few leaders and product families; this amplifies their pricing and investment power, but also increases sector vulnerability to capacity, supply chain, or regulatory disruptions.
Sources:
- Omdia (via Business Wire / One News Page): Semiconductor Quarterly Revenue Surpasses $200bn for the First Time as Industry-Wide Growth Accelerates.