The dedicated graphics card business for PCs — known as add-in boards (AIB) — remains huge, but its immediate future doesn’t point to explosive growth. According to the latest report from Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the global market reached $8.8 billion in Q3 2025, with 12 million units shipped, but a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.7% is expected between 2024 and 2029.
The picture painted by JPR is that of a market still very relevant for gaming, content creation, and AI workloads, but one under economic, commercial, and demand pressures that call for caution.
12 million cards sold… but below usual levels
In Q3 2025, shipments of dedicated graphics cards (AIB) increased by 2.8% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 12.0 million units. Year over year, the jump is much more striking: a 47.5% increase over the same quarter last year.
However, JPR notes that despite this spectacular percentage, the quarterly growth is below the ten-year average for this period, which hovers around 11.4%. In other words, the market has grown, but less than what would be expected in a “typical Q3” of the last decade.
At the same time, desktop CPU shipments reached 19.2 million units in the same quarter. The segment declined by 7.6% compared to the previous year, but improved by 3.9% versus the previous quarter. Fewer new PCs, but with some recent rebound.
“Panic” effect due to tariffs in Q2
One key point in the report relates to what happened in Q2 2025. Jon Peddie Research describes that quarter as “unusually high” in AIB shipments due to a panic buying phenomenon driven by the possibility of new tariffs.
Many channel actors reportedly accelerated orders to avoid future price increases, partly explaining why Q3 2025 grew less than usual: some sales that would normally occur in this quarter were already completed earlier.
This pattern fits with the current component market situation: trade uncertainty, potential tariff changes, and an industry seeking to protect margins amid inflation and high energy costs.
A future with more cards… but no major expansion
Despite the expected -0.7% CAGR between 2024 and 2029, the report does not paint an apocalyptic future for dedicated GPUs. In fact, JPR estimates that:
- The installed base of AIB cards will reach 152 million units by 2029.
- The penetration rate in desktop PCs will reach 120%, meaning many systems will have more than one dedicated GPU.
In the short term, the so-called “attach rate” — the ratio of dedicated cards per desktop PC — stands at 162% in Q3 2025, just 0.6 points below the previous quarter. This confirms that although the desktop market is shrinking, those still investing in PCs are doing so with increasingly powerful configurations, especially for high-end gaming, content creation, simulation, or local AI.
A challenged market: trade wars and inflation
Beyond the figures, Jon Peddie Research’s message is one of “cautious optimism”. Dr. Jon Peddie, the firm’s president, emphasizes that the AIB sector has shown a flat or slightly negative trend for some time, and that trade and geopolitical tensions add noise to forecasts.
The report warns of several risks:
- Trade wars and tariffs, which can distort manufacturer, distributor, and end-user behavior, accelerating or delaying purchases.
- Inflation and recession risks driven by socioeconomic uncertainty, directly affecting spending on consumer electronics and enthusiast hardware.
The central idea is that, before discussing a solid recovery or new growth cycle, the market needs “one or two quarters of stabilization” on the trade and macroeconomic fronts.
What does this mean for manufacturers, channel, and users?
For GPU makers and card assemblers, JPR’s scenario calls for a more refined strategy:
- Less room for volume growth and more pressure to differentiate by performance, energy efficiency, and value propositions like software, drivers, and AI tools.
- Greater demand volatility, with peaks triggered by tariff announcements or price hikes, followed by softer quarters.
- Inventory management is essential to avoid being caught between generation shifts and temporary consumption dips.
For the channel (wholesalers, specialty stores, and e-commerce), the message is clear: stock management and purchase timing will be key to avoiding price swings and availability issues.
From the end-user perspective, the report points to a market where:
- Dedicated GPUs remain critical for PC gamers, video editors, 3D artists, or AI applications.
- Opportunities for good prices might still emerge, especially when the channel clears inventory before generation changes or tariff adjustments.
- Uncertainty around tariffs and logistics costs could lead to price increases in 2026, particularly in mid- and high-range segments.
A mature yet strategic sector
Although a -0.7% CAGR might sound disappointing, the overarching message is that the AIB market is already mature. It no longer grows at double-digit rates but still moves nearly $9 billion per quarter and forms the backbone of much of the gaming, creative tools, and AI workloads in the PC world.
In the coming years, this role could even strengthen if trends toward running certain AI models locally—without relying entirely on the cloud—continue, and if major game studios push resolutions and graphics effects that are increasingly demanding.
For now, Jon Peddie Research’s message to the industry is simple: caution, focus on efficiency, and adaptability. The pie won’t grow much more, but it will remain large enough for fierce competition for each market share point.