The global semiconductor industry is heading towards an exceptional year. Gartner forecasts that the total industry revenue will surpass $1.32 trillion in 2026, representing a 64% growth compared to 2025 and the largest jump in over two decades. This is not just another strong streak for the chip market: the figure reflects how Artificial Intelligence, data centers, and memory pressure are reshaping the entire tech supply chain.
The forecast comes at a time when the sector has already been experiencing very strong performances. Gartner estimates that the market closed 2025 with around $805.3 billion in revenue and, if its scenario plays out, will reach $1.5545 trillion in 2027. The firm also states that 2026 will be the third consecutive year of double-digit growth, signaling that the current cycle is not just a temporary recovery but a structural transformation driven by AI’s rise and new infrastructure demand.
Memory explains much of the leap
The key element behind this forecast is not only in GPUs or AI accelerators but in memory. Gartner expects memory segment revenues to triple, going from $216.3 billion in 2025 to $633.3 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, the non-memory chip business would also grow, albeit at a much more moderate pace, from $589 billion to $686.9 billion. In other words: a significant part of the sector’s growth will come not just from selling more chips of all kinds, but from memory becoming much more expensive and strategically important.
Gartner names this phenomenon: memflation. The consultancy estimates that the annual prices of DRAM will increase by 125% in 2026 and those of NAND flash by 234%, with no significant relief expected until late 2027. While memory inflation may seem temporary, its effects go far beyond chip manufacturers. Rajeev Rajput, Gartner’s senior analyst, warns that this pressure could “destroy or at least delay” some of the non-AI demand until 2028, depending on the application. In essence, the strength of the AI boom could end up shifting investment and capacity away from less profitable or urgent markets.
This interpretation aligns with what the major memory players are already indicating. In March, Micron explained that the improvement in its results and forecasts is supported by increased memory demand driven by AI, structural supply constraints, and a fundamental shift: memory is no longer a relatively interchangeable component but a strategic asset within the new AI infrastructure. The company added that its memory and storage solutions are “at the heart” of this revolution and that computing architectures will become increasingly memory-intensive as AI gains context, reasoning, and coordination among agents.
AI now accounts for nearly a third of the business
Another highly revealing detail from Gartner’s report is the share of AI-related semiconductors. The consultancy estimates that in 2026, they will account for approximately 30% of the entire industry revenue. This percentage helps explain why the industry is experiencing intense tension between growth and shortages: hyperscalers are still expanding AI infrastructure investments, and Gartner anticipates that this spending will grow by over 50% in 2026, fueling demand for both GPUs and bespoke chips outside of GPUs.
This context is also reflected in the manufacturing supply chain. TSMC, the world’s largest contract manufacturer of advanced chips, stated in January that 2026 will be another year of strong growth, with revenues rising around 30% and robust demand linked to AI. The company noted that AI accelerators already made up a “high teens” percentage of its total revenue in 2025 and raised its five-year growth forecast for this segment to a compounded annual rate in the mid-fifties. Additionally, TSMC plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion in capital expenditures this year, demonstrating how eager manufacturers are to avoid capacity shortfalls.
A larger but more imbalanced market
Gartner’s forecast thus has a dual perspective. On one hand, it confirms that AI is driving the entire tech stack and solidifying semiconductors as a core industry for the digital economy. On the other, it warns that this growth could bring significant imbalances: rising prices, supply tensions, and increasing pressure on those buying technology outside the AI perimeter. The firm recommends that suppliers and buyers act prudently during the first half of 2026 and pay particular attention to supply agreements extending beyond 2027 with unfavorable pricing conditions.
This means that the revenue record should not be seen solely as good news. For manufacturers, 2026 could be an extraordinary year. For many enterprise clients, however, it may be an uneasy period, with strained budgets and tough decisions about which projects to accelerate and which to delay. The chip industry will grow, yes, but it will also become more selective: those aligned with the AI wave will have priority access to capacity, innovation, and funding; those not aligned face the risk of paying more and waiting longer. That divide may ultimately reshape the hierarchy within the global tech market.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will the global semiconductor market grow in 2026?
Gartner forecasts that worldwide sector revenue will reach $1.32 trillion in 2026, up from $805.3 billion in 2025, representing a 64% increase.
Why are DRAM and NAND memory prices rising so sharply in 2026?
According to Gartner, strong demand related to AI and structural supply constraints are causing intense “memflation.” The firm estimates increases of 125% for DRAM and 234% for NAND flash, with no significant relief expected until late 2027.
What role will AI play in the overall chip business?
The consultancy calculates that AI-related semiconductors will account for around 30% of the total market in 2026, driven by hyperscalers’ infrastructure and accelerator spending.
How might this situation affect companies that do not buy chips for AI?
Gartner warns that pressure on memory and capacity could delay or harm some non-AI demand until 2028. In practice, this could translate into higher costs, reduced availability, and more complex supply negotiations for other tech segments.
via: Gartner