The expansion of Artificial Intelligence from training large language models (LLMs) to inference—where those models run in production—is quietly reshaping the data center economy. Alongside it, a component that seemed “background” has moved to the forefront: memory.
According to the latest TrendForce analysis, major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expanding their deployments beyond AI servers to include more general-purpose servers. This shift is extending memory purchasing: no longer just high-capacity HBM3e, LPDDR5X, or RDIMMs, but RDIMMs in multiple densities to support a broader fleet of servers. The immediate effect has been a sharp jump in contractual prices for “conventional” DRAM and a notable increase in sector revenues.
TrendForce estimates total industry DRAM revenues at $53.58 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 29.4% increase from the previous quarter. This isn’t an isolated figure but a snapshot of a market tightening due to an explosive combination: rising demand, constrained supply, and buyers willing to pay more to secure supply.
From “GPU-only” AI to “Full Data Center” AI
The public narrative around AI often focuses on GPUs, accelerators, and HBM, but the actual operation of data centers is broader. Training models is expensive and visible, but inference has become a massive phenomenon: instances, services, enterprise products, and integrations multiply. This phase demands general-purpose infrastructure, not just specialized machines.
TrendForce states that CSPs are expanding their data center “build-outs” by incorporating more general-purpose servers, which drives memory demand to a new wave of purchases. In this scenario, conventional DRAM again competes for wafers, capacity, and industrial planning alongside products that until now dominated headlines.
The result, according to TrendForce, is an increasing imbalance between supply and demand that strengthens manufacturers’ pricing power.
Vertical Prices: Conventional DRAM and Mixed with HBM
The consulting firm describes a market where buyers have struggled to secure enough volume, leading to sharp interquarter price increases:
- The contract prices for conventional DRAM rose between 45% and 50% in Q4 2025.
- Meanwhile, the “mixed” contractual price (conventional DRAM + HBM) increased between 50% and 55%.
TrendForce interprets this as an accelerated escalation “across all categories,” not limited to niche products. The forecast for the first quarter of 2026 is even more aggressive: the firm expects conventional DRAM to increase by between 90% and 95%, while the DRAM + HBM mix could rise between 80% and 85%.
In a sector accustomed to cycles, these figures stand out for their intensity. TrendForce adds a nuance: seasonality typically weakens consumer demand and curbs shipment growth (“bit shipments”), which could flatten sequential growth for providers. However, if CSPs continue prioritizing securing supply and accept higher prices, other market segments are forced to follow suit to avoid losing allocations.
Quarterly Rankings: Samsung Returns to Number One
In manufacturer rankings, TrendForce notes a significant leadership shift: Samsung recaptures the top spot with a strong revenue improvement.
- Samsung: revenues of $19.30 billion, up 43% quarter-over-quarter, with market share increasing 3.4 percentage points to 36%. TrendForce attributes part of this gain to growth in the HBM business and an approximate 40% rise in average selling price (ASP), the most intense among the top three, alongside rising shipments in the “low double digits” range.
- SK hynix: revenues of $17.22 billion, up 25.2%, but market share drops 1.1 points to 32.1%. The ASP likely increased in the “mid-20%” range, with a particular note that its greater HBM share buffers the volatility of contractual prices against more exposed conventional DRAM competitors.
- Micron: revenues of $11.98 billion, up 12.4%, with market share falling 3.3 points to 22.4%. TrendForce notes that its ASP rose about 17%, the smallest increase among the three, and that shipment volumes (“bit shipments”) declined roughly 4%, linked to contractual negotiations completed earlier than competitors, which likely limited realized prices.
Beyond rankings, the clear takeaway is: when the market enters a phase of scarcity, the timing of contracts and the product mix (HBM vs. conventional DRAM) can shift market shares within just one quarter.
Taiwanese Suppliers: Filling Gaps with Mature Nodes
TrendForce also highlights the strong position of several Taiwanese players, especially those focused on mature nodes. The logic is well-known: as industry leaders shift capacity toward more advanced nodes or higher-margin products, gaps open in legacy segments (DDR3, DDR4, certain densities), allowing specialized suppliers to capture demand.
Details include:
- Nanya: revenues of $970 million, up 54.7% quarter-over-quarter. TrendForce indicates shipments are rising in the “low teens” range and ASP is increasing in the “30% mid-range.” Additionally, operating margins have jumped from 6% to 39.1%, supported by higher DDR4 and DDR3 contractual prices, inventory replenishment for major clients, and capacity reallocation (20 nm and 1B) toward higher-margin DDR4.
- Winbond: revenues of $297 million, up 33.7%, with shipments increasing in the “low double digits” and ASP rising in the “mid 30%” range, driven by increased delivery of DDR4 4 Gb chips in 20 nm.
- PSMC: DRAM revenues (excluding foundry services) of $33 million, up 0.6%; including related DRAM foundry revenues, growth would be around 5%. TrendForce adds that after their licensing agreement with Micron for process technology, PSMC could accelerate the next phase of DRAM capacity expansion.
Implications for the Market: Pressure on Data Centers and Supply Chains
When conventional DRAM rises this sharply, the impact goes beyond financial graphs. It affects:
- Server costs: even when focus is on accelerators, RAM remains a critical component of total ownership costs.
- Purchase planning: CSPs tend to “secure supply” with additional orders; the rest of the market has to bid up to maintain allocations.
- Domino effect: if contractual prices trend upward, segments like PCs, laptops, or consumer electronics could see cost pressures despite weaker seasonal demand.
The key, in the short term, will be monitoring whether inference demand continues to expand and if supply can respond without industry entering a prolonged cycle of tension.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is conventional DRAM rising if the boom is driven by AI and HBM?
Because inference prompts CSPs to deploy more general-purpose servers, increasing purchases of RDIMMs in multiple densities, not just HBM.
What does it mean that “contractual” prices are rising so much?
It refers to large-scale supply agreements between manufacturers and major buyers; when prices rise, they tend to pull up the rest of the market prices.
What is TrendForce’s forecast for Q1 2026?
TrendForce projects quarter-over-quarter increases of 90–95% for conventional DRAM and 80–85% for the combined DRAM + HBM prices.
Who leads the market after Q4 2025?
TrendForce indicates that Samsung regains the top position with a 36% share, followed by SK hynix (32.1%) and Micron (22.4%).
via: trendforce