SpaceX Is Already Building 3.6 GW of AI Data Centers, According to SemiAnalysis

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Consultancy SemiAnalysis estimates that SpaceX already has 3.6 gigawatts (GW) of data center capacity under construction across several sites, and says it has identified more than 9 GW in total. The figure contrasts with the 1.7 GW of nominal capacity the company had running at the end of September and points toward its goal of surpassing 13 GW by the end of 2027. The analysis, published in the firm’s newsletter, places new data centers in Memphis, at the Starbase rocket base, and, with less certainty, next to the future Terafab chip factory in Texas.

The key facts about SpaceX’s data center expansion in 30 seconds

  • SpaceX had 1.7 GW operating at the end of September and aims to surpass 13 GW by the end of 2027.
  • SemiAnalysis counts 3.6 GW under construction and more than 9 GW identified, based on its own data that hasn’t been independently verified.
  • At Colossus 2, a 5.9 GWh battery system is being installed, and the temporary turbines must be removed before July 2027.
  • Starbase and Terafab could host data centers, something SpaceX hasn’t confirmed.

SpaceX absorbed xAI in February 2026 and has been publicly traded since June. Since then, its artificial intelligence business, which the company calls Super Intelligence, has become its largest segment, ahead of Starlink and launches. A large share of that revenue comes from renting out compute capacity to third parties, so the speed at which it builds data centers has a direct effect on its financials.

From 1.7 GW Operating to a 13 GW Target

The official figures start out much lower than SemiAnalysis’s. In its first earnings presentation, for the second quarter, published in August, SpaceX reported 1.4 GW of capacity, and Elon Musk said he expected to end the year “above two gigawatts” and reach the end of 2027 “closer to ten gigawatts than five.” In the third-quarter presentation, on October 20, nominal capacity had risen to 1.7 GW, and according to accounts of the analyst call, the target for the end of 2027 was raised to 13 GW or more.

That third quarter closed with revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161%, of which $7.56 billion came from the AI segment. Capital spending for the quarter was $19.6 billion, mostly on AI infrastructure, and the company expects between $35 billion and $40 billion in the fourth quarter alone. Its known customers include Anthropic, which in May began using the entire capacity of Colossus 1, and Google, which according to a regulatory filing cited by Reuters will pay $920 million per month between October 2026 and June 2029, with termination clauses. Revista Cloud has already explained how SpaceX became an AI landlord with Google and Anthropic.

SemiAnalysis, which already argued in August that the 10 GW target was achievable, is now going further. It maintains that 13 GW by 2027 would be the largest data center capacity ever built by a single company in that timeframe, comparing it to everything Google built between 1999 and 2026. These are the consultancy’s own estimates, which it sells in detail through a subscription, and SpaceX hasn’t published a breakdown by site.

Colossus 2: Construction in Weeks and the Country’s Biggest Battery

Most of the expansion is happening in and around Memphis. According to SemiAnalysis, the first building conversion at Colossus 1 took 122 days for 150 megawatts (MW), and at Colossus 2 it took just 91 days for 210 MW, part of a buildout that SpaceX is now racing to turn into a reliable cloud business. The company is now trying to beat that record with a building in the middle of the campus, under the code name “Project SPAM,” whose construction began on October 5 and whose first blocks it wants to bring online in December. The consultancy also cites the MiniHard building, completed in about five months, and a plot to the south, already in Mississippi, which it calls “Gun Range” and which it estimates will be ready in about four. It adds that SpaceX is trying to buy hundreds of nearby homes, both to calm noise complaints and to house workers.

Energy is the trickiest part. The regional utility, TVA, has received supply requests for Macrohard (700 MW) and MiniHard (450 MW), and SpaceX is building a 500 kV substation that, according to the documents the consultancy cites, must be finished by December 31, 2026. At the same time, the company agreed in July with Mississippi’s environmental authority to remove Southaven’s 69 mobile gas turbines before July 2027, while it builds a permanent 1.2 GW plant with 41 turbines that received its permit in March. Those temporary turbines had already caused controversy: Revista Cloud reported that xAI installed turbines without federal approval to power Colossus 2.

Based on those figures, SemiAnalysis sees a possible shortfall of up to 300 MW between the compute capacity planned for the complex, around 2.5 GW, and the energy available once it’s connected to the grid and its own generation is scaled back. Its theory is that SpaceX will cover that gap with a battery system of almost 6 GWh, of which it says 5.9 GWh is already being installed and which would be the largest in the United States, combined with very high energy efficiency (a PUE of between 1.10 and 1.15) and different availability levels for its internal clusters versus customer clusters. This is the consultancy’s explanation, not a plan the company has published.

Starbase and Terafab: Data Centers Where Rockets and Chips Get Made

The most novel part of the analysis is the use of land from Musk’s other ventures. Based on satellite imagery and local documents, SemiAnalysis claims that Starbase, SpaceX’s complex in South Texas where Starships are built and launched, will host two data centers. According to its account, the plot went from cleared land in late August to standing structures by late September, and with NVIDIA chips from the Vera Rubin generation it could exceed 1 GW. Mobile turbines are already being deployed to power it, and two gas pipelines are under construction. SpaceX hasn’t officially announced these data centers.

The other site is Terafab, the chip factory that SpaceX and Texas Governor Greg Abbott confirmed on August 6 in Grimes County, with an investment of more than $16.8 billion in its first phase, about 9.3 million square meters, and around 3,000 jobs expected. That announcement doesn’t mention any data center. SemiAnalysis says it has “medium-high” confidence that one will be built, based on earlier site work and a video in which SpaceX representatives speak with county officials, and argues that the project started out as a data center before becoming Terafab. It also acknowledges that what’s being built right now could be auxiliary infrastructure for the factory. Revista Cloud has followed the project since SpaceX and Tesla announced the investment.

What Still Needs to Be Proven

The gap between what’s operating and what’s been promised remains enormous: going from 1.7 GW to more than 13 GW in a little over a year would require multiplying capacity more than sevenfold. SemiAnalysis itself admits that, in its calculations, the energy under Musk’s control (more than 8 GW) is lower than the compute capacity it expects to see up and running (more than 9 GW), and that power supply decisions are often made after construction has already begun. It also attributes part of the speed to Tesla reportedly manufacturing modular electrical and mechanical equipment for SpaceX, something it presents as a belief rather than a confirmed fact, and neither company has confirmed it.

Timelines also depend on environmental permits, the power grid, and GPU supply, and the 2027 figures are company targets, not contracted capacity. What the results do show is that the compute-rental business already outweighs rockets in SpaceX’s accounts, and that the company is willing to spend at a rate of tens of billions per quarter to sustain it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much data center capacity does SpaceX have?

According to its third-quarter results, 1.7 GW of nominal capacity at the end of September 2026. SemiAnalysis estimates another 3.6 GW under construction.

What target does SpaceX have for 2027?

In August it talked about approaching 10 GW by the end of 2027, and in October it raised the target to 13 GW or more, according to reports on its earnings call. It’s a projection, not built capacity.

Will Terafab have a data center?

SpaceX hasn’t announced one. SemiAnalysis considers it likely based on local documents and prior site work, and doesn’t rule out that it could be leased to third parties.

How does SpaceX power Colossus 2?

With gas turbines in Southaven, which it must replace before July 2027 with a permanent 1.2 GW plant, a TVA grid connection under construction, and, according to SemiAnalysis, a large battery system.

Sources:

This article is also available in Spanish: «SpaceX ya construye 3,6 GW de centros de datos para IA, según SemiAnalysis», on revistacloud.com.

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