In the semiconductor market, Samsung and TSMC have decided to cancel 61% of their scanner orders with ASML, causing a significant decrease in the financial projections of the Dutch company. Initially, ASML expected revenues of $4.63 billion for the quarter, but now anticipates only reaching $3.8 billion. This adjustment not only reflects a reduction in anticipated demand, but also raises questions about the potential existence of a new bubble in the chip technology sector.
The simultaneous decision of two technology giants like Samsung and TSMC to cancel their orders is not only alarming due to the direct economic loss, but also because of what it implies about future industry trends. This move has led analysts to speculate on the possibility that both giants are seeing warning signs that the market in general has not yet perceived.
According to Stephane Houri, an analyst at Oddo BHF, the current level of EUV scanner orders is described as “extremely low”. This could indicate that TSMC will not require more scanners in the near future unless there is an unexpected increase in chip demand, a scenario that currently seems unlikely.
The semiconductor industry has been operating under pressure to meet the growing demand for chips for artificial intelligence, which has led TSMC and Samsung to invest in advanced technologies such as extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). However, with the evolution of existing nodes and the shift towards manufacturing substrates and interposers, the immediate need for new scanners appears to be diminishing.
This situation is further complicated by delays in the construction and commissioning of new fabs, which have necessitated the postponement of new machinery acquisitions. Roger Dassen, CFO of ASML, maintains an optimistic view, anticipating a recovery in the industry in 2024 and a strengthening in 2025. However, rumors within the sector suggest that the number of scanners needed could be much lower than expected due to a possible slowdown in AI chip demand.
This series of events raises the critical question: are we witnessing the growth of another bubble in the semiconductor industry, similar to previous crises? While TSMC and Samsung seem to be adjusting their strategies in response to changing market conditions, ASML faces the challenge of adapting to a more volatile economic environment. Time will reveal whether these adjustments are mere temporary precautions or symptoms of a deeper issue at the heart of the semiconductor industry.
via: Bloomberg