Rapidus, Japan’s major bet to regain prominence in the global advanced semiconductor race, has had to clarify expectations. The company has denied reports suggesting that construction of a new 1.4-nanometer chip factory has already begun or that there’s a fixed schedule for mass production. The message is clear: the immediate goal remains to successfully develop the first generation of 2 nm chips in Hokkaido on time and with good performance. Anything else, for now, is long-term horizon.
This clarification comes amid intense technological and geopolitical pressure. Japan has launched a public support plan for the semiconductor industry totaling around one trillion yen just for Rapidus, with up to $65 billion in ecosystem aid through 2030—an investment of several trillions of yen to return to the “Champions” level of advanced manufacturing.
What’s Behind the Buzz About 1.4 nm
In recent weeks, reports circulated suggesting that Rapidus had already taken the leap to a second factory targeting a 1.4 nm node — the next step after 2 nm — and that a production schedule existed. The company has denied this: there is no factory under construction specifically for 1.4 nm, nor is there a ready “production plan” to announce.
This nuance is important. In the industry, talking about 1.4 nm doesn’t literally refer to the physical size of transistors, but marks the generation jump in density, performance, and energy efficiency. Each advanced node allows more transistors to be packed into the same area, boosting computational power and reducing per-operation energy consumption.
For workloads like generative AI, training large language models, or scientific simulations, these advances translate into:
- More performance per watt in data centers.
- Lower energy costs for training and deploying increasingly large models.
- Greater competitiveness against players like TSMC, Samsung, or Intel, which already have roadmaps beyond 2 nm for the coming decade.
However, reaching 1.4 nm is not just about “shrinking the scale” from 2 nm. It involves new materials, even more complex transistor architectures, extreme ultraviolet lithography at its latest, and probably an upgraded ecosystem of design tools (EDA), IP, and 3D packaging. All of these require years of R&D, massive investments, and, crucially, a solidification of the previous generation.
Therefore, Rapidus’ silence on 1.4 nm doesn’t mean abandoning that node but recognizing that the real priority is making 2 nm work: mature processes, acceptable yields, high-value customers in HPC and AI, and a cost structure that isn’t forever dependent on subsidies.
Japan’s High Stakes: Trillions of Yen at Play
Rapidus’ project isn’t an isolated initiative but a symbol of a broader industrial strategy. Japan, which controlled about 50% of the global semiconductor market in the 1980s, saw its share plummet to around 10% by 2019.
The government has decided this must change, and quickly. Elements of this push include:
- A public funding plan that foresees up to $65 billion in support to the chip industry through 2030, a significant part of which goes to Rapidus, but also to other strategic investments like TSMC’s fabs in Kumamoto.
- Massive targeted subsidies to attract and establish memory, advanced logic, and packaging factories, aiming to secure critical supplies for automotive, robotics, and consumer electronics industries.
- Enhanced collaboration with the US and Europe on cutting-edge technology, from semiconductors to batteries and space, focusing on economic security and supply chain resilience.
In this context, any headline suggesting Japan has leapfrogged from 2 nm to 1.4 nm has obvious political and reputational implications. Rapidus’ denial acts as a safeguard against unrealistic expectations and repositions the conversation around short-term achievable goals.
Why 1.4 nm Matters… But Not Tomorrow
In industry jargon, talking about 2 nm or 1.4 nm no longer describes the literal physical size of a transistor but marks the generation leap in density, performance, and energy efficiency. Each advanced node allows more transistors to be packed into the same area, increasing computing power and reducing operational power consumption.
For tasks like generative AI, large language model training, or scientific simulations, these advances mean:
- Higher performance per watt in data centers.
- Lower energy costs for training and deploying ever-larger models.
- Greater competitiveness against players like TSMC, Samsung, or Intel, who have roadmaps beyond 2 nm for the coming decade.
However, achieving 1.4 nm isn’t just about “shrinking the scale” of 2 nm. It involves new materials, even more advanced transistor architectures, extreme ultraviolet lithography at its latest, and probably an updated ecosystem of design tools (EDA), IP, and 3D packaging. All this demands years of R&D, massive investments, and, most importantly, a mature previous generation.
Thus, Rapidus’ silence on 1.4 nm doesn’t mean abandoning that node but acknowledging that the real priority is making 2 nm work: mature processes, acceptable yields, high-value HPC and AI clients, and a cost structure not eternally reliant on subsidies.
Implications of the Denial for the Global Chip Race
Rapidus’ message sends several signals to the tech market:
- Realism over hype
Japan aims to return to the advanced manufacturing elite but recognizes that the leap from almost zero to 2 nm is already a technological marathon. Promising a 1.4 nm factory without wafers of 2 nm in production would fuel unsustainable expectations. - Continuity in government support
The public backing—approximately ¥1.7 trillion in direct subsidies and a framework of up to $65 billion—indicates the plan is structural, not just a short-term effort. The funds are being used to build real productive capacity, not just to fund announcements. - The 1.x nm race is a long-term game
In the medium term, 1.4 nm and even more advanced nodes will be the domain of very few players. Rapidus aims to be part of that conversation, relying on IBM, imec, and an ecosystem of suppliers like ASML or Tokyo Electron. But its credibility will hinge not on the next headline about 1.4 nm but on how many 2 nm chips leave Chitose by 2027–2028. - Impact on AI geopolitics
In a world where advanced chips are strategic resources for AI, defense, and digital economies, Japan’s success or failure in establishing Rapidus as a leading foundry will influence the technological power balance among the US, Taiwan, South Korea, and China.
For now, behind the noise about 1.4 nm, the story is simpler: Japan is investing trillions of yen to once again produce cutting-edge chips, with Rapidus focusing on its clear, tangible goal—2 nm. Time will tell whether, on that foundation, the country can truly compete in the future of 1.4 nm and beyond.
Sources:
Rapidus – Background, public funding, and factory timeline in Chitose (Wikipedia and official links from METI, IBM, Rapidus, and imec).