The Low Earth Orbit (LEO) economy is entering its decisive decade. According to the Enterprise LEO Forecast 2025-30 report by Omdia, organizations with critical connectivity needs — what the consultancy calls “sovereign verticals” — will spend $15.3 billion on LEO services by 2030. The snapshot painted by the study is clear: enterprise broadband will account for 94% of segment revenue, while direct-to-device (D2D) will barely contribute 6% and, in most cases, will be bundled within premium offers without direct monetization.
Behind these figures lies a strategic conclusion: satellites are no longer just complementary but are becoming a defining service in operators’ portfolios. Companies demand converged connectivity “anywhere”, with a consistent experience regardless of technology. This compels telcos to sell service experience — SLA, security, data sovereignty — above specific access methods (cellular, fiber, microwave, or satellite).
What does Omdia mean by “sovereign verticals”?
Omdia defines sovereign verticals as public and private sectors with extensive geographic networks, high operational dependency, and sharp demands for network security and data sovereignty. These include critical industries such as public safety and defense, transportation, or energy, with thousands of distributed assets, operations in remote areas, and continuity requirements that cannot tolerate outages.
The message from the report is unequivocal: bridging the digital divide — an unquestioned social goal — won’t alone fund satellite growth. The true opportunity at LEO’s heart lies in companies with high-risk missions and isolated environments where ground networks either don’t reach or are insufficient.
The slice of the pie: broadband dominates; D2D remains marginal
Omdia’s forecast positions enterprise broadband as the major driver of spending: 94% of LEO revenue by 2030. This includes capacity links for remote branches, offshore platforms, convoys, substations, or logistics fleets: backhaul, active redundancy, and last-resort fallback when everything else fails.
Meanwhile, D2D — the promise that a “conventional” smartphone can connect directly to a satellite without additional hardware — will stumble to generate material revenue. Omdia succinctly summarizes: the experience doesn’t match cellular, use cases are limited, and therefore, most D2D will be bundled into premium plans, with no significant direct monetization. From a business perspective, this relegates D2D to a complementary role, useful for emergencies, basic messaging, or low-rate telemetry, but far from achieving the ARPU levels of broadband.
Geography of the business: US leads today; Asia accelerates
Regionally, North America — led by the United States — will remain the largest enterprise satellite market until 2030, accounting for 37% of the opportunity. Nonetheless, the landscape shifts over the decade: Oceania, East and Southeast Asia, led by China, will grow their share from 9% in 2025 to 33% in 2030. The double takeaway is that: demand is multiplying outside traditional markets, and competition for sovereign contracts — critical infrastructure, cross-border transport, energy — will intensify.
Why satellites are now “make-or-break” for operators
The study emphasizes: for telcos, satellite becomes a crucial service (make-or-break). The reason: companies buy converged experiences, not standalone technologies. They demand “connectivity anywhere” with fixed SLA, end-to-end security, and regulatory compliance, regardless of whether the access segment is fiber, 5G, or LEO. Under this lens, an operator without satellite (own or third-party) cannot guarantee the promised experience in real-world geographies.
This leads to a profound organizational shift: telcos must master multi-network orchestration, integrate satcom into their BSS/OSS, align SLA, and expose APIs that facilitate seamless switching from terrestrial to LEO. They move from selling “lines” to managing missions: continuity, latency, data security and sovereignty as products.
Use cases paying the bills
Beyond theory, Omdia highlights applications with direct ROI:
- Public safety and defense: coordination in coverage gaps, deployed command centers, vehicles and drones operating with secure LEO backhaul. Resilience and sovereignty are key here.
- Transportation: long-distance rail, road, aerospace, and maritime with consistent connectivity for operations, maintenance, ticketing, and onboard experiences.
- Energy: upstream and midstream with remote assets (pipelines, platforms, wind/solar parks), teleprotection and resilient OT.
- Telecom: hybrid backhaul for 5G cells and micro-sites, ensuring service where fiber does not reach or is vulnerable.
In all cases, purchasing is not “just in case”: it’s a condition for operation. That’s why broadband captures most of the revenue: capacity plus authentic SLA.
D2D: useful, but with limits
Omdia’s projection that D2D will account for only 6% of revenue by 2030 is due to three frictions:
- User experience: today, D2D does not match in latency, data rate, and continuity the mobile network.
- Limited use cases: emergencies, basic messaging, lightweight IoT; useful but hard to monetize with high tickets.
- Commercial strategy: D2D tends to bundle into premium plans, diluting direct revenue.
Does this mean D2D is not useful? No. Its value lies in resilience, extreme last-mile coverage, and minimal continuity, more than in bandwidth. For critical sectors, this function is invaluable, but it does not generate the bulk of the business.
Sovereignty, security, and data: the other half of the contract
Omdia’s focus on data sovereignty and network security is not incidental. Sovereign verticals require jurisdictional control over where data resides and how it circulates, along with robust encryption, segmentation, and auditing. Vendors providing LEO to these accounts must document:
- Routes and points of presence
- Processing and storage within acceptable legal domains
- Encryption in transit/rest and key management
- Compatibility with existing OT networks and SOCs
Without this framework of compliance and governance, no contract can succeed, regardless of coverage quality.
What changes within the operator?
For LEO to be convergent, operators must:
- Unify SLA (repair times, availability, jitter) regardless of access method
- Make backhaul “interchangeable” via policy-as-code (orchestration between fiber, microwave, and LEO)
- Integrate billing and multi-network catalog: customers must not see “Frankenstein hybrids”
- Expose APIs for telemetry and events (e.g., transition to LEO after terrestrial failure), enabling IT and OT to act
- Secure the user equipment chain (LEO terminals, electronic antennas), with remote management and lifecycle control.
North America today, Asia tomorrow: the race to 2030
The fact that North America accounts for 37% of the market until 2030 makes sense: infrastructure, sovereign budgets, and active satcom operators. However, the leap of Oceania and East/Southeast Asia from 9% in 2025 to 33% in 2030 signals another reality: continental projects in energy, logistics corridors, and sovereign networks with LEO at the core. Those aiming to grow will need to win in Asia and adapt to tighter regulatory and sovereignty frameworks.
What Omdia hints between the lines
- Convergence is not optional: without integrated satellite, “anywhere” SLA remains just marketing.
- Business success depends on operation: orchestration, security, observability, and compliance determine margins.
- D2D does not pay for the network: it is functionally resilience, not a revenue driver.
- The 2025-2030 cycle is about industrialization: fewer pilots and more multi-year contracts with operational KPIs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which enterprise sectors will lead satellite spending until 2030?
The “sovereign verticals” described by Omdia: public safety and defense, transportation (road, rail, maritime, air), and energy (upstream, midstream, renewables). These are extensive, critical networks with strict security and data sovereignty requirements.
Why does broadband account for 94% of revenue, but D2D only 6%?
Because “the applications supporting ARPU” — backhaul, active redundancy, capacity links — require guaranteed broadband. D2D offers minimum resilience and spot coverage, but does not match the experience or bandwidth of cellular, hence it’s bundled into premium plans without significant direct monetization.
Which regions will see the fastest growth in enterprise LEO revenue?
North America will remain dominant until 2030 with 37% market share. Oceania and East and Southeast Asia, led by China, will grow from 9% in 2025 to 33% in 2030, driven by sovereign projects and logistics corridors.
Why has satellite become “make-or-break” for operators?
Because customers buy convergent experiences: continuous service and security, regardless of the access technology. Without integrated LEO, operators cannot guarantee “anywhere” connectivity with reliable SLA or tackle critical missions in real geographies.
Source: omdia — Space To Grow: Enterprise LEO Forecast 2025-30 (October 8, 2025).