The availability of gaming graphics cards could tighten again in 2026. According to rumors circulating within the Asian supply chain and reported by specialized media, Nvidia is considering significantly reducing chip production for the GeForce family in the first half of next year. The figure being discussed — still unconfirmed officially — is compelling: between 30% and 40% fewer GPUs manufactured in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
The origin of the noise lies in Chinese sources linked to the industry, who are attributed with leaks about capacity planning. From there, the rumor has jumped onto the European radar thanks to coverage like that of heise, which connects it to a context already heating up the market: pressure on memory supply (especially GDDR7) and Nvidia’s increasing focus on data center accelerators.
Two models in focus: RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5060 Ti with 16 GB
The alleged reduction wouldn’t be uniform across the entire lineup. Reports indicate that the cuts would significantly affect the GeForce RTX 5070 Ti and the 16 GB version of the GeForce RTX 5060 Ti. That detail, in itself, already hints at a strategic approach.
In the case of the RTX 5070 Ti, the industrial logic is clear: it would be a model that shares GPU with the RTX 5080, but with part of the chip disabled. For AIC partners and Nvidia itself, this presents a dilemma: if the 5080 has more margin and competes for the same “silicon,” prioritizing the higher-end model is a direct way to maximize revenue per available wafer.
On the other hand, the 16 GB RTX 5060 Ti is described as a niche variant, more difficult to justify during shortages. If memory costs increase or shortages occur, products that don’t turn over quickly are usually the first to be adjusted, as they immobilize inventory without guaranteeing volume.
The bottleneck: memory (GDDR7) and the GPU + DRAM “package”
The most repeated explanation for a potential production cut is the same factor driving various hardware segments: memory scarcity and rising costs, explicitly mentioning GDDR7 and broader tensions in the memory chip market.
Meanwhile, the rumor blends with another industry-relevant debate: the traditional supply model where, in some cases, GPU and memory are sold together to ensure availability and simplify logistics. If this dynamic changes — if chips cease to be “packaged” together as before for card manufacturers — the scene becomes more complicated: OEMs could end up with GPUs lacking sufficient memory (or with memory prices breaking retail prices), leading to the same immediate consequence: fewer finished units and upward pressure on final prices.
Even if Nvidia adjusts capacity in January, shortages wouldn’t “appear” in stores overnight. Semiconductor manufacturing involves thousands of steps and cycle times, which, combined with packaging, distribution, and third-party assembly, push any market effect to a horizon of weeks or even months.
Therefore, the real impact — if the cut is confirmed — could be gradual: first in irregular availability of specific models, then in less stable prices, and finally into a market where mid-range segments face the old familiar problem: paying nearly the same for much less stock.
The elephant in the room: Nvidia makes far more money with AI than with gaming
One factor explaining why this rumor is taken seriously is that the business arithmetic has changed. Nvidia continues selling GeForce GPUs, but its center of gravity now lies in data centers. In its Q3 FY2026 results, the company reported $57.0 billion in total revenue, with $51.2 billion coming from the Data Center segment. In comparison, gaming registered $4.3 billion, with a year-over-year increase, but far from the volume of AI business.
In industrial terms, this means Nvidia’s incentive is not “stocking” gaming graphics cards but allocating resources (capacity, packaging, memory, validation) to products with higher returns. Today, that return is in training and inference infrastructure, not retail gaming.
What could happen in 2026 if the cut is confirmed?
The scenario described by industry analysts doesn’t need to be dramatic: it’s enough to recall how the market behaves when two ingredients fail simultaneously — capacity and memory.
- Increased price volatility, especially in “sweet spot” mid-to-high-end models that tend to sell out faster.
- Wider gap between PVP and actual price, with spot offers disappearing and irregular restocks.
- Chain reaction in the broader market, because when GeForce supplies are scarce, part of the demand shifts to Radeon… and that can also strain inventories and tariffs.
For now, everything is based on leaks and supply chain readings, without official confirmation from Nvidia. But the context — high memory prices and focus on AI — makes the hypothesis quite plausible for many industry stakeholders.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean if Nvidia cuts 30–40% of GeForce GPU production in 2026?
It means fewer chips available to manufacture consumer graphics cards, which typically results in less stock and increased pressure on retail prices.
Why is GDDR7 mentioned so much in connection with the possible RTX 50 shortage?
Because memory is a critical component of the card. If GDDR7 shortages occur or prices rise, it reduces the ability to assemble units or makes products more expensive, even if GPUs are available.
Why would the RTX 5070 Ti be especially vulnerable to cuts?
Because it shares its GPU with a more expensive RTX 5080. If supply constraints occur, prioritizing the higher-margin model is a common industry practice.
When might a real shortage become noticeable if the plan proceeds?
It’s usually not immediate: semiconductor production and logistics take weeks. The effect could gradually appear throughout 2026, starting with specific models.