The laptop market started 2026 with a signal that’s hard to ignore. In mainland China, between January and February, the public online sales channel recorded only 947,000 units sold, a 40.5% decrease from the previous year. Revenue fell by the same proportion, reaching 5.99 billion yuan. This does not represent the entire Chinese market, much less the global market: the data excludes content commerce platforms like Douyin or Kuaishou. But it is a sufficiently serious snapshot to raise alarms.
A simple explanation would blame Artificial Intelligence directly. A more accurate, albeit uncomfortable, interpretation is that AI isn’t causing the laptop sales decline on its own, but it is disrupting the economics of their components. Meanwhile, the sector is burdened with a classic problem after major promotion cycles: some demand was pulled forward into 2025, many purchases were made early, and now the market faces a hangover of lower renewal just as manufacturing a laptop becomes more expensive.
A Collapse That Can’t Be Explained Only by Lack of Interest
China’s downturn is notable for its magnitude, but it doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Throughout 2025, much of Asia-Pacific experienced a recovery in the PC market driven by replacing old equipment, educational demand, and a surge in purchases ahead of supply restrictions and price increases. IDC estimates the region grew 11.6% in 2025, reaching 106.6 million units, but foresees a 13.7% decline in 2026 due to component shortages, higher costs, and diminished momentum after that renewal cycle.
This context explains why the hit on laptops can be so abrupt in some markets. When a consumer has already renewed their device in recent months, the urge to buy again diminishes. If, additionally, entry prices rise, purchasing becomes less of a priority unless there’s an urgent need. The result is a market where share remains relatively stable, but the volume drops. Lenovo still leads the channel in China with around 35%, followed by HP, ASUS, Mechanical Revolution, and Apple, but brand competition matters less when the overall pie shrinks so significantly.
It’s important to clarify that talking about a “laptop crisis” doesn’t mean the product is now obsolete or that the market will collapse worldwide at the same pace. It instead indicates entering a phase of tension: demand is less elastic, costs are under more pressure, and margins for maintaining aggressive prices are shrinking.
Memory Goes to AI, and the Laptop Pays the Price
The most significant part of this story lies in the supply chain. TrendForce has been warning for months that memory manufacturers are reallocating capacity toward server products, HBM, and enterprise storage, driven by demand from data centers and AI infrastructure. In early January, the firm already predicted quarterly increases of 55-60% for conventional DRAM and 33-38% for NAND Flash, along with over 40% growth in client SSDs.
This pressure has not eased—in fact, it has intensified. In February, TrendForce further raised its forecast, predicting increases of 90-95% for conventional DRAM and 55-60% for NAND Flash in Q1 2026. They also indicated that DRAM prices for PCs could more than double compared to the previous quarter.
To consumers, all this sounds distant until it hits the price tag. Laptops depend heavily on memory and storage, and when those components become so expensive, manufacturers have limited options: accept lower margins, cut specifications, or pass the cost onto consumers. None of these options are ideal. On March 10, TrendForce warned that a mid-range laptop priced around $900 could see costs increase by nearly 40% if memory and processor prices rise simultaneously.
Therefore, the notion that “AI is eating into the laptop market” needs nuance. It’s not that consumers are replacing their laptops with chatbots or AI gadgets, but the race to deploy servers and AI services is consuming industrial capacity and warping component prices. Ultimately, consumers bear the impact.
China Signals a Broader Issue
The Chinese case doesn’t automatically imply a 40.5% global decline, but it fits within a broader market deterioration. IDC revised its 2026 outlook on March 12, now expecting global shipments to fall 11.3% this year, compared to a 2.4% decrease estimated in November 2025. The analyst firm even suggests that market value could increase due to higher average selling prices—a paradox that sums up the current moment: fewer units, but more expensive ones.
Specifically for laptops, TrendForce predicts an overall decrease of 9.4% in 2026, attributing this to the combination of expensive memory, pressure on other components, and uncertainties about brands’ ability to adjust strategies without damaging demand.
The core issue is that laptops no longer compete solely with tablets or smartphones for user budgets. They now also indirectly compete with the investment appetite for AI infrastructure. This is a significant change. For years, consumer PCs benefited from economies of scale and streamlined supply chains optimized for high volumes. 2026, however, shows the opposite: less industrial priority, higher costs, and a much more selective buyer.
In the short term, no sudden shifts are expected. Promotions, discounts, and brands willing to sacrifice margins to protect market share may occur. But the general trajectory seems clear: the laptop market is entering a cooling phase, where selling fewer units is no longer exceptional but a real possibility for much of the year.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are laptop prices rising in 2026?
Mainly due to the increase in costs of key components like DRAM and NAND Flash, along with pressures on processors and other parts of the supply chain.
Does the 40.5% decline mean the global laptop market has collapsed?
Not exactly. That figure refers to the online public sales channel in mainland China during January and February 2026. It serves as a warning sign but does not directly reflect the global market.
How is AI related to this laptop crisis?
The expansion of data centers and servers for AI is consuming memory and storage manufacturing capacity, reducing supply for consumer electronics and driving up prices.
Should I wait to buy a laptop in 2026?
It depends on your needs. If your current device still works well, waiting might allow you to see how prices and promotions evolve. If you need a new laptop now, be prepared for higher costs or less advanced configurations.
via: MyDrivers