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Lenovo, HP, and Apple lead the rebound in sales, driven by a preemptive rush against U.S. tariffs as manufacturers seek to diversify their production outside of China.
Global personal computer sales have started the year on a positive note. According to the latest data from Canalys, now part of Omdia, the global market for PCs, laptops, and workstations grew by 9.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 62.7 million units sold. However, the momentum may be short-lived: the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on imported technology products threatens to hinder the industry’s recovery.
A race to avoid extra costs
The growth in the first quarter has been largely motivated by a strategic move from major manufacturers: accelerating shipments to the U.S. market ahead of the initial tariffs announced by the Trump administration.
“Manufacturers have rushed to bolster stock in the U.S. out of fear of future price increases,” explained Ishan Dutt, a senior analyst at Canalys. Companies such as Lenovo and HP increased their shipments to the U.S. by 20% and 13%, respectively, taking advantage of stable demand and avoiding the immediate impact of tariffs.
However, Canalys warns that the effect will be temporary: a slowdown is expected in the coming quarters as inventories stabilize and consumers face higher prices.
Uneven impact on consumers and businesses
The impact of tariffs will not be uniform. While consumers will have to adjust their purchasing decisions due to more expensive computers, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may also be adversely affected, especially at a critical time: the transition from Windows 10, which will end its technical support in October 2025.
According to a survey conducted by Canalys in March, 14% of channel partners claim that their clients are unaware of the Windows 10 support deadline, and another 21% acknowledges that, although they are informed, they have yet to plan for equipment renewal. This means many users could be forced to upgrade their devices in a more costly environment.
Relocation of production: goodbye to China?
Trade tensions are also redefining the geography of tech manufacturing. While China has historically been the epicenter of PC production, manufacturers are accelerating diversification to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India. This trend, initiated during Trump’s first term, aims to reduce exposure to tariff risks.
HP, for example, has announced that 90% of its products sold in the United States will be manufactured outside of China by the end of the year, according to CEO Enrique Lores. Although these countries are also subject to new tariffs, their rates remain more competitive than those in China. Moreover, they show a greater willingness to negotiate with Washington, which could soften the impact.
Manufacturer ranking: Apple grows strongly
In terms of market share, Lenovo remains at the top with 24.2%, having sold 15.2 million units, a growth of 10.7% compared to the previous year. HP follows with 12.8 million units and a share of 20.3%, while Dell, after several declining quarters, achieved a modest growth of 3%.
The most remarkable case is Apple, which increased its shipments by 22.1% year-on-year, reaching 6.5 million units and positioning itself as the fourth-best-selling brand. Asus, meanwhile, completes the Top 5 with a growth of 8.8%.
Market data – Canalys Q1 2025:
| Manufacturer | Q1 2025 Units (millions) | Market Share | Year-Over-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 15.2 | 24.2% | +10.7% |
| HP | 12.8 | 20.3% | +6.1% |
| Dell | 9.5 | 15.2% | +3.0% |
| Apple | 6.5 | 10.4% | +22.1% |
| Asus | 4.0 | 6.4% | +8.8% |
| Others | 14.6 | 23.4% | +10.8% |
| Total | 62.7 | 100% | +9.4% |
Source: Canalys PC Market Pulse – April 2025
Outlook for the remainder of 2025
While the first quarter shows signs of recovery, analysts warn that the coming months will be crucial for the direction of the global market. The combination of tariff costs, inflationary pressure, and mandatory device upgrades due to the retirement of Windows 10 could create a perfect storm.
“The PC market is moving between two opposing forces: on one hand, the push for technological renewal; on the other, trade restrictions that raise supply costs,” concludes Ben Yeh, senior analyst at Canalys. The balance between the two will set the tone for a key year for the sector.
Source: Canalys