The global PC market closed 2025 with a notable turnaround after years of weakness. According to preliminary results published by Gartner, worldwide computer shipments reached 71.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 9.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. For the full year, volume exceeded 270 million units, representing a 9.1% growth over 2024.
Gartner’s interpretation is clear: growth has been sustained by consumer demand, but primarily by business demand related to the Windows 11 upgrade cycle. This structural force was complemented by a tactical factor: more inventory in the channel due to expectations of price increases and memory shortages in 2026, a critical component that could strain costs and supply chain availability.
A strong quarter… with signs of moderation at the end
Gartner describes a “healthy” fourth quarter, but with an important nuance: demand softened toward the end of the quarter. The combination of price pressure and promotions appeared to offset earlier increases tied to high-end components—including GPUs and the commercial push around the so-called AI PCs—resulting in average prices remaining “stable or slightly lower”.
Meanwhile, the manufacturer ranking remained steady in the “top 6,” but with a significant move in market share consolidation: Lenovo, HP, and Dell increased their year-over-year share during the quarter, strengthening their positions in a market that, despite the rebound, remains highly competitive.
Windows 11, Windows 10 ESU, and a market that “advances” at cost
For the annual outlook, Gartner points to a combination of catalysts sustaining the rebound:
- Tariff volatility.
- Anticipated memory price hikes in 2026.
- Rising costs associated with Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU), prompting companies to renew hardware to avoid reliance on support extensions.
Result: many organizations prioritized replacement not necessarily for immediate productivity gains but to reduce risk and achieve “future-proofing” (updating their asset base for the coming years).
The paradox of AI PCs: marketing hype with limited immediate value
One of the most interesting points in Gartner’s report is its cautious stance regarding AI PCs. Manufacturers have made notable commercial efforts to ride the wave of refresh cycles, but Gartner emphasizes that most AI PC features—like local inference—have yet to demonstrate significant productivity improvements compared to cloud-based AI solutions.
In other words, the market is currently buying “potential capacity” (NPU, local acceleration, new designs) more than immediate, measurable returns. For channel partners and manufacturers, this is key: success depends not only on selling hardware but on ensuring the software ecosystem and use cases translate that promise into real value.
Table 1. Global PC shipments by manufacturer (Q4 2025) — preliminary estimates (thousands of units)
| Company | Q4 2025 Shipments | Q4 2025 Share | Q4 2024 Shipments | Q4 2024 Share | Growth Q4 25–Q4 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 19,437 | 27.2% | 17,004 | 26.0% | 14.3% |
| HP Inc. | 15,392 | 21.5% | 13,730 | 21.0% | 12.1% |
| Dell | 11,783 | 16.5% | 9,970 | 15.2% | 18.2% |
| Apple | 6,689 | 9.4% | 6,327 | 9.7% | 5.7% |
| ASUS | 4,851 | 6.8% | 4,718 | 7.2% | 2.8% |
| Acer | 4,165 | 5.8% | 4,131 | 6.3% | 0.8% |
| Others | 9,180 | 12.8% | 9,529 | 14.6% | -3.7% |
| Total | 71,496 | 100.0% | 65,409 | 100.0% | 9.3% |
Table 2. Global PC shipments by manufacturer (2025) — preliminary estimates (thousands of units)
| Company | 2025 Shipments | 2025 Share | 2024 Shipments | 2024 Share | Growth 2025–2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 73,567 | 27.2% | 62,542 | 25.3% | 17.6% |
| HP Inc. | 57,457 | 21.3% | 53,035 | 21.4% | 8.3% |
| Dell | 41,392 | 15.3% | 39,448 | 15.9% | 4.9% |
| Apple | 24,826 | 9.2% | 22,504 | 9.1% | 10.3% |
| ASUS | 18,512 | 6.9% | 17,351 | 7.0% | 6.7% |
| Acer | 16,963 | 6.3% | 16,927 | 6.8% | 0.2% |
| Others | 37,501 | 13.9% | 35,839 | 14.5% | 4.6% |
| Total | 270,218 | 100.0% | 247,646 | 100.0% | 9.1% |
Methodological note: Gartner reminds that these are initial estimates based on an early study, and the data reflect shipments to the channel (not final consumer sales), so they may be revised.
Implications for 2026: growth, but higher hurdles
The rebound in 2025 leads to two conclusions that manufacturers and the channel are already internalizing:
- The Windows 11 cycle continues to drive, but it’s not infinite: once the “bump” has passed, the pace will depend on natural replacement cycles and the ability to justify upgrades based on real value.
- Memory prices could define margins: if the expected hikes and shortages materialize, cost pressures might shift to pricing or less ambitious configurations.
- The AI PC story requires results: selling “capacity” is viable for a time; turning it into measurable productivity will be what sets apart performance in the upcoming quarters.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Gartner mean by “shipments to the channel” and not sales?
This indicates the number of units sent to distributors and retailers (inventory), which may sell later. It’s a good trend indicator but not an exact measure of final consumer demand.
Why is the Windows 11 upgrade cycle such a driver for the PC market?
Many organizations renew equipment when security, compatibility, and support requirements change. Moving to Windows 11 often coincides with hardware updates driven by corporate policies and standardization efforts.
How could memory price hikes in 2026 affect buyers?
They might lead to more expensive devices, configurations with less RAM standard, or more selective promotions. In the professional environment, it could also accelerate purchases to avoid the upcoming price increases.
What is an “AI PC,” and why does Gartner question its immediate impact?
An AI PC is a device with specific capabilities to execute AI locally (e.g., dedicated NPU). Gartner notes that many of these features haven’t yet demonstrated significant productivity gains over cloud-based AI, so many purchases are “future-proofing” rather than immediate improvements.