Global revenue from the quantum computing market will reach $1.1 billion in 2027, up from the $869.9 million forecast for 2026, according to estimates Gartner published on October 8. The firm expects 22.9% growth this year and warns that the sector will have to clear significant commercial and technical hurdles: more than half of quantum computing startups could disappear before 2030 if they fail to develop commercially viable solutions.
Quantum computing in 20 seconds
- Gartner estimates the global market will reach $1.1 billion in revenue in 2027.
- For 2026, the forecast stands at $869.9 million, up 22.9% from 2025.
- The public sector will lead spending through 2027, with $245 million projected.
- Banking, financial services and insurance could become the top-spending sector starting in 2028.
- Gartner estimates more than 50% of quantum startups will shut down before 2030 under commercial pressure and the difficulty of reaching fault tolerance.
The forecasts describe a market that is starting to draw investment from public bodies and enterprises, but that still has to prove how far it can generate sustainable revenue. For technology leaders, Gartner’s recommendation is to treat quantum computing adoption as a multi-year process, with initial investment aimed at building knowledge, identifying useful applications and assessing potential competitive advantages.
The firm believes that advances in algorithm development, operation speed and system capacity are accelerating the technology’s evolution. However, that technical progress doesn’t remove the difficulty of turning early experiments and projects into commercially viable products. Gartner had already struck a cautious note on a related front, pouring cold water on quantum AI hype and arguing that GPUs will keep dominating enterprise AI workloads for years to come.
The Public Sector Will Lead Spending Through 2027
Gartner expects government agencies and public-sector-linked bodies to remain the leading buyers of quantum computing solutions through 2027. The investment, according to the firm, reflects countries’ interest in securing a leadership position in a field that’s still developing.
Global spending in this segment would reach $245 million in 2027, up from an estimated $219 million in 2026. The difference reflects a $26 million increase over one year, though the figures are Gartner forecasts, not already-booked financial results.
The role of public institutions is significant at a stage when the market is still looking for applications that can justify sustained investment. Research projects, partnerships and the development of technical capabilities are part of that effort, according to the firm’s analysis.
Gartner also points to a shift in the makeup of demand. Starting in 2028, the banking, financial services and insurance sector could overtake the public sector to become the leading source of revenue for quantum computing providers.
The firm expects this group of industries to spend $289 million in 2028, versus $280 million for the public sector. The projected gap is $9 million, so the change in leadership will depend on those spending estimates actually playing out.
Among the possible uses Gartner mentions are financial portfolio optimization, risk modeling and fraud detection. These are areas where institutions could explore whether quantum methods offer advantages over conventional techniques. The spending forecast alone doesn’t prove those applications have reached widespread profitability or are ready to replace current systems.
Gartner Expects a Shakeout Among Companies Before 2030
The market’s expected expansion will coincide with heavy pressure on the companies developing quantum hardware and software. Gartner believes the sector is too crowded for the volume of commercial revenue available and expects more than half of the startups in the field to disappear before 2030.
The firm links this scenario to the difficulty of reaching fault-tolerant quantum computing, known by the acronym FTQC (Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing). This technical goal is about systems being able to run quantum operations reliably despite the errors that affect qubits, the basic units of information in these machines.
The forecast points to a shakeout among the different technologies and companies competing in the market. According to Gartner, qubit approaches that fail to progress toward systems capable of correcting and managing errors with the reliability needed for demanding commercial applications could be left behind.
However, the forecast doesn’t identify which companies will disappear, which specific technologies will lose ground, or when the shutdowns would happen. It also doesn’t mean every startup still operating in 2030 will have already achieved fault-tolerant quantum computing. The firm is describing a scenario of market consolidation, not a list of confirmed business outcomes.
Despite that risk, Gartner advises technology leaders to start investing selectively. The idea is for organizations to build internal capabilities and evaluate use cases before the technology reaches wider adoption. That work can include training, collaboration with vendors and analysis of specific business problems, though the announcement sets no universal budgets or timelines for those programs.
A Technology Opportunity That Calls for Long-Term Planning
Gaurav Gupta, a Gartner vice president analyst, says countries and companies have increased their investment in quantum computing training, patents, partnership agreements and evaluation of early applications. In his view, progress in algorithms, quantum gate speed and system scaling points to faster-than-expected advances.
Gupta also believes a first stage of limited quantum advantage has begun, in which intermediate-scale, still-noisy quantum processors can perform certain complex tasks with improved error reduction. That statement should be read within Gartner’s own framing: the announcement doesn’t detail which specific tests back up that assessment or offer a quantitative performance comparison against classical computers.
The gap between technical progress and business value will be decisive for companies that decide to invest. Quantum computing continues to generate expectations in fields like finance, but its commercial value will depend on whether these systems can solve relevant problems reliably and competitively.
That’s why Gartner recommends that chief information officers (CIOs) plan the adoption of this technology as a multi-year initiative. The goal should be identifying a concrete business advantage over competitors, rather than adopting solutions purely for their novelty.
Revenue forecasts show the market could cross the $1 billion threshold for the first time in 2027. At the same time, the estimate of business shutdowns before 2030 warns that aggregate growth won’t guarantee every provider’s survival. For organizations studying this technology, tracking its commercial and technical evolution will be just as important as identifying possible applications.
FAQ
How much revenue will the quantum computing market generate in 2027?
Gartner expects global revenue of $1.1 billion in 2027. For 2026, the firm calculates $869.9 million, up 22.9% year over year.
Which sector will spend the most on quantum computing?
The public sector will lead spending through 2027, with $245 million projected for that year. Gartner expects banking, financial services and insurance to take the top spot starting in 2028.
Why could quantum startups disappear before 2030?
Gartner estimates more than 50% could shut down due to a lack of viable commercial revenue and the difficulty of reaching fault-tolerant quantum computing systems. This is a forecast, not a confirmed outcome.
What does Gartner recommend to technology leaders?
The firm advises planning adoption over several years, investing initially in building knowledge, and studying applications that can deliver a concrete business advantage.
