The tech industry is heading into 2026 with favorable momentum. According to Gartner’s latest forecast, global IT spending will reach $6.08 trillion in 2026, representing a 9.8% growth compared to 2025 and marking the first historic jump above the six-trillion mark. Behind this figure is a clear story: a pause of uncertainty that began in the second quarter of 2025 started to ease in the third, and a “significant budget wave” is being prepared before year’s end. John-David Lovelock, the firm’s distinguished vice president analyst, explains that GenAI is already everywhere in enterprise software and drives up both the product price and new functionalities.
Not all segments, however, are reactivating at the same pace. Lovelock himself warns that software and services spending don’t “bounce back” as quickly as devices or data center systems, and that vertical software (industry-specific) has been more susceptible to policy changes and business uncertainty. Still, Gartner’s outlook for 2025 and 2026 remains unequivocally expansive.
The macro picture: from $5.54 trillion to $6.08 trillion in one year
The takeoff is already noticeable in 2025, with Gartner estimating total spending of $5.54 trillion (+10%). In 2026, the combined IT budget is projected to reach $6.08 trillion (+9.8%). Under this umbrella, the breakdown by category shows differences:
- Data center systems: $489.451 billion in 2025 (+46.8%) and $582.446 billion in 2026 (+19%).
- Devices (PCs, mobiles, etc.): $783.157 billion in 2025 (+8.4%), rising to $836.275 billion in 2026 (+6.8%).
- Software: $1.244 trillion in 2025 (+11.9%) and $1.433 trillion in 2026 (+15.2%).
- IT services: $1.719 trillion in 2025 (+6.5%) and $1.869 trillion in 2026 (+8.7%).
- Communications services: $1.304 trillion in 2025 (+3.8%) and $1.363 trillion in 2026 (+4.5%).
Software and IT services remain the two main spending pillars, with bases exceeding, respectively, $1.24 trillion and $1.71 trillion in 2025. Yet, the biggest surprise (and likely for the cycle) lies in data centers, which will see a 46.8% jump in 2025 and another 19% increase in 2026.
GenAI, the lever already impacting the software bill
Gartner asserts that, while 2026 might be seen as the “lowest point of disillusionment” in the GenAI expectations cycle, the generative functions are already integrated into the software companies own and operate. And that costs more money: not only does the software price go up, but also the cost attributed to new AI-driven functionalities.
This nuance is key to understanding why software maintains double-digit growth path toward 2026 (+15.2%). Adoption isn’t limited to licenses or subscriptions: it extends to implementation costs, process changes, training, and related service consumption. Meanwhile, vertical software reacts more sensitively to regulatory shifts and cautious sectors; thus, spending becomes less uniform than the aggregate suggests.
Devices: mobiles and “endpoint AI” driving demand
The device segment — including PCs and mobile phones — grows 8.4% in 2025, reaching $783.157 billion. This growth is fueled by solid shipments in the first half of the year. Lovelock attributes it to stronger-than-expected mobile spending and the arrival of AI-enabled devices, which added over $30 billion to overall spending. The replacement cycle hasn’t changed significantly, so the strong performance in 2025 anticipates part of the demand and cools down the relative growth in 2026 (+6.8% to $836.275 billion).
The underlying message is clear: endpoint AI justifies catalog improvements and higher average ticket sizes, while also distributing workload across cloud, edge, and devices. It’s a phenomenon with a direct impact on fleet renewal, both for consumers and enterprises.
Data centers: “AI race” with supply limits
The biggest acceleration is in data center systems. The race to build AI infrastructure has driven up expectations for servers, especially AI-optimized racks, according to the analysis. Yet, the growth faces supply constraints that limit actual demand: the industry is competing not just for GPUs and accelerators, but also for components and manufacturing capacity across the entire supply chain.
This results in a two-phase outlook: 2025 will see a +46.8% increase — reaching $489.451 billion — and 2026 will add another +19% — totaling $582.446 billion. However, the growth ceiling won’t be set by market appetite but by physical availability of equipment and the launch and expansion of new centers.
IT and communications services: steady growth, no extremes
Meanwhile, IT services provide stable momentum: +6.5% in 2025 and +8.7% in 2026, reaching $1.87 trillion. No dramatic jumps, but resilience. Demand stems from modernization projects, migration, and hybrid environment operations, reflecting investment patterns aimed at predictability.
Similarly, communications services follow a moderate path (+3.8% and +4.5%), consistent with a mature market that remains colossal ($1.36 trillion forecast for 2026). Connectivity remains a basic infrastructure and is less elastic to shocks; hence, its more gradual profile.
What CIOs should focus on in these numbers
- AI Generative and budget planning. Not just licenses: expect impacts on services, internal adoption, data governance, and security. It’s wise to quantify the incremental costs related to generative functionalities and negotiate with vendors for transparency on these charges.
- Avoid infrastructure bottlenecks. With supply limitations in AI-optimized servers, strategic procurement and vendor diversification will be crucial. Those who reserve capacity early will gain a competitive advantage.
- Align with device cycles. If 2025 accelerates demand, 2026 might require a refinement of renewal plans, prioritizing use cases where endpoint AI justifies ROI (productivity, security, offline operation).
- Vertical software: informed prudence. Sectors sensitive to regulatory changes or volatility show more caution. CIOs in regulated industries should sequence investments and leverage value metrics (time-to-value, real adoption, cost savings) to justify priorities.
- Services as stabilizer. In hybrid environments (public/private cloud, edge), IT services help absorb complexity spikes and ensure continuous operations. The steady growth reflects their role as buffers.
Methodology: why the data is reliable
Gartner backs its forecast with a rigorous analysis of sales from over a thousand providers across the full spectrum of IT products and services. The firm combines primary research techniques (interviews, surveys, direct data) with secondary sources to build a comprehensive market size database. From this, it adjusts growth models by category and region, with periodic revisions. For the reader, this means the numbers aren’t mere opinions, but a quantitative synthesis with traceability.
Risks to watch: three potential hurdles
- Supply and hardware chain: if constraints in AI hardware persist or worsen, spending in 2026 could shift toward services (optimization) or less hardware-dependent alternatives.
- Regulation and privacy: tighter rules in AI, data, or cybersecurity might redefine priorities in software development and delay projects in sensitive industries.
- Macro economy: shocks in interest rates, currencies, or business spending can lead to pauses, similar to what was seen in early 2025, with reactivations tied to fiscal year-end adjustments.
Conclusion: a growing market that’s becoming pricier with AI
Gartner’s projection outlines an expansive two-year period. The “budget wave” forecasted to peak at the end of 2025 isn’t an isolated event but a response to a latent demand that has been recalibrating after months of caution. GenAI, far from being a pilot, is already affecting software spending lines and the underlying infrastructure. 2026 will arrive with more installed capacity, more use cases, and likely, more pressure to demonstrate the true value of each invested dollar.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a 9.8% growth in global IT spend in 2026 mean for CIOs?
It signifies an expanding budget environment with room to modernize platforms and accelerate GenAI use cases. Nonetheless, it’s crucial to prioritize initiatives with clear ROI and ensure infrastructure capacity, as AI-optimized servers remain affected by supply limitations.
How will GenAI influence enterprise software costs in 2026?
Gartner states that GenAI is now omnipresent in software and raises both the price and the cost of functionalities. Organizations should audit license breakdowns and renegotiate to align incremental costs with delivered value (productivity, automation, error reduction).
Which segments account for the biggest share of the budget: data centers, software, or devices?
In 2025, the fastest relative growth is in data centers (+46.8%), followed by software (+11.9%) and devices (+8.4%). In 2026, software growth accelerates to +15.2%, data centers moderate to +19%, and devices grow +6.8% after leading demand in 2025.
What should companies do in response to the shortage of AI servers?
Plan early, diversify vendors and regions, evaluate architecture options (mix CPU/GPU, batches vs. serving, edge selectivity), and optimize efficiency (load, queues, quantization) while new capacity arrives. Simultaneously, strengthen IT services to support operations and governance.
Source: Gartner’s global IT spending forecast (October 2025), including insights from John-David Lovelock and breakdowns by categories (data centers, devices, software, IT services, and communications).