The Chinese components market is beginning to send a signal that many integrators and manufacturers have been waiting for months: DDR4 memory has started a downward correction after reaching highs during 2025. It’s not a collapse, but a shift in tone. According to traders at Shenzhen’s main “price thermometer,” Huaqiangbei, some DDR4 references have experienced cuts of up to 20% from recent peaks. However, this reading comes with nuances: the adjustment is limited, irregular, and above all, it follows an escalation that had fueled ideas of a bubble.
A visit by a Securities Times journalist to Huaqiangbei market captures the environment well: fewer open stalls due to the Chinese New Year’s proximity, more cautious buyers, and sellers talking about “decenas de yuan” retraces, rather than a structural fall. “DDR4 has gone up five or six times since the end of last year; now it’s only slightly decreasing,” summarizes one of the testimonials collected. In some models, prices still hover around 1,800 yuan, with exaggerated comparisons (“more expensive than gold”) reflecting how deeply the rising costs have penetrated the tech street’s perception.
From speculative frenzy to “liquidity mode”
In China’s ecosystem, seasonal factors matter. Several agents link the correction to the typical liquidity needs ahead of the holidays and to the cooling down of the “hype” after weeks of speculative buying. Not everything labeled as “market price” ends up translating into actual sales volume, warn sources within the circuit: there are references with limited availability, budgets that change on the fly, and quotes that function more as psychological anchors than actual prices.
This detail is important because it introduces an idea increasingly repeated in the sector: part of the rally was not just real demand, but a mix of anticipation, stockpiling, and scarcity expectations. Therefore, the correction can be seen as the partial exit of the more speculative component, rather than the end of the core issue.
Effects already felt in PCs: increases of 5% to 20% and peaks of 33%
While end users watch RAM module costs, manufacturers focus on the overall device cost. The same China report notes that some PCs have already entered price increase phases, with reported jumps of 5% and forecasts of between 10% and 20% in mid-range and budget laptops, while high-end models remain somewhat more stable. Beyond memory, there’s also pressure on graphics cards and screens: a major brand seller mentions up to 33% increases after the holidays, and a possible rise of up to 1,000 yuan on gaming laptops.
In this context, a moderate DDR4 correction alone isn’t enough to ease the supply chain. Lenovo has publicly acknowledged that the “storage challenge” (broadly speaking about memory and storage components) persists: their CEO, Yang Yuanqing, estimated that costs grew by more than 40% quarter over quarter in the last quarter, and could even double in the first quarter of 2026.
The factor keeping the market “tight”: data centers and Artificial Intelligence
If the question is why the market isn’t crashing, the answer repeats itself: demand from data centers and AI is absorbing supply. The Chinese report describes a “pull effect” (demand sucking in inventory) toward data infrastructure, while traditional consumption (PCs and mobile) is losing negotiating power.
CFM Flash Market data points in the same direction. In 2025, the global combined DRAM and NAND Flash market likely surpassed $200 billion for the first time, growing 32.7% to $221.6 billion. In Q4, the combined size was around $75.5 billion, with DRAM and NAND advancing simultaneously.
The practical consequence is that, although DDR4 is a mature technology, its pricing operates within an ecosystem where supply is optimized for the highest margins and volume: servers, cloud, and AI workloads. This doesn’t eliminate DDR4 from the map but can make it more sensitive to “spikes” in availability and opportunistic buying waves.
A change in rules: farewell to quarterly negotiations, hello to “dynamic pricing”
Another sign of structural tension is the debate on how prices are set. The Chinese report states that major suppliers seek more “voice” in commercial terms: Western Digital’s CEO of SanDisk mentioned breaking away from the traditional “quarterly negotiation” model, and giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are also considering clauses of “post-settlement” (adjusting charges after delivery based on market conditions). Practically, this would shift from fixed prices to more dynamic mechanisms.
For the channel (wholesalers, integrators, and manufacturers), this change has a clear message: it reduces predictability. While offering more flexibility, it also raises the risk that actual costs will move quickly, even after budgets and planning are set.
China accelerates expansion: CXMT and YMTC join the equation
Meanwhile, China aims to strengthen its supply independence. The same report highlights moves by two key players:
- CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) in DRAM: a plan to raise 295 billion yuan for line upgrades, technological advances, and R&D projects, with expected shipment growth in 2026. It also mentions a global share of 3.97%, positioning it as the fourth-largest DRAM supplier worldwide.
- YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies) in NAND: its third-phase project aims to start production this year, with an overall investment of $24 billion and a planned capacity of 3.6 million wafers per year. The report adds that ramp-up could accelerate and that their NAND shipment share surpassed 10% in Q1 2025, with projections to rise to 13% later on.
These expansions, however, do not promise immediate relief: forecasts estimate that “extra” capacity outside current plans may not materialize until late 2027, though some segments might see earlier signs of change.
What this correction leaves behind: it’s not the end of the crisis, but a clue
From Huaqiangbei, China isn’t confirming a DDR4 “crash,” but rather a partial normalization after a phase where prices were distorted by expectations and a globally low-inventory market. Demand from data centers and the AI race continues to sustain the pace, and industry is moving toward more aggressive pricing models to protect margins and manage volatility.
For consumers and companies, the message is twofold: there could be occasional respites, especially when speculation recedes; but the underlying conditions — tight supply, prioritization of enterprise customers, and slow expansion — suggest memory will remain a “nervous” component through 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did DDR4 prices rise so much and now only drop “a little”?
Because the correction follows a very sharp rally (sellers talk about a five- or sixfold increase), and the current adjustment seems linked to reduced speculation and seasonal factors, not oversupply.
What role does Artificial Intelligence play in “legacy” RAM prices?
Demand from data centers shifts capacity and inventories toward higher-margin products (servers and AI workloads), leaving the consumer market more exposed to tensions and spikes.
What does it mean when suppliers seek “dynamic prices” or clauses after delivery?
It implies moving from fixed agreements (like quarterly negotiations) to mechanisms where prices can be adjusted more quickly based on market conditions, even post-delivery. This reduces predictability for manufacturers and integrators.
When might the memory market genuinely stabilize?
Capacity expansions take time: some forecasts suggest relevant additional capacity could arrive by late 2027, though earlier shifts in specific segments are possible.