Memory — that unglamorous component that determines how many browser tabs you can open before your computer complains — has become one of the most sensitive bottlenecks of the digital economy. And not by chance. The explosion of Artificial Intelligence is shifting priorities in major manufacturers: where chips for mobile devices, laptops, or servers once dominated, now a very specific and much more profitable piece rules — High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) — designed to power AI accelerators with massive data flows.
This shift has left an uncomfortable side effect: less capacity for conventional memory (like DDR5 or NAND “as usual”), increased pressure on the supply chain, and a market that’s heating up. In this scenario, China is making moves with an ambition hard to ignore: its two main players in the sector, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in DRAM and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) in NAND, are preparing capacity expansions that, if successful, could disrupt the balance of power in the coming years.
Two new factories aiming for 2027
According to information gathered by industry outlets and sources, CXMT is preparing a large DRAM facility in Shanghai, estimated to be two to three times the size of its main plant in Hefei. Construction and equipment installation are expected to start in 2026, with the goal of mass production starting in 2027.
Meanwhile, YMTC, historically associated with NAND memory, is building its third factory in Wuhan with an approach that’s unusual: about half of the planned capacity would be dedicated to DRAM, not NAND. For a company known for storage, it’s a strategic move that clearly signals: memory for AI and data centers is reshuffling priorities even among specialists.
The “HBM effect”: when AI eats up traditional memory
The underlying reason is both economic and technological. HBM has become the “premium fuel” for AI accelerators: offering extremely high bandwidth and being critical for training and running advanced models. Within this segment, SK hynix dominates a large part of global supply, with Samsung and Micron sharing much of the rest. But increasing HBM capacity isn’t a switch that can be flipped without consequences: it requires reallocating investments, wafers, and production lines previously dedicated to conventional memory.
The result is a growing sector-wide perception: “normal” memory is becoming harder to secure, and the market is under tension. It’s not just a matter for engineers; this influences everyday decisions like the final price of a PC, laptop configurations, or product launch schedules.
PC manufacturers looking to China… out of necessity
This pressure is prompting something that, not long ago, would have seemed unlikely: major PC makers evaluating Chinese memory suppliers for the first time. Reuters reports that companies like HP, Dell, Acer, and Asus are considering options with Chinese providers, with CXMT being a prominent name in industry discussions. The logic is simple: when supply tightens, the “impossible supplier list” tends to shrink.
In HP’s case, the move appears even more pragmatic: it has begun qualification processes with CXMT products and is considering expanding procurement outside especially sensitive markets if shortages persist — a clear sign that the pressure isn’t just temporary headline news.
IPO, DDR5, and the race to catch up
CXMT is also seeking financial backing to support this leap. The company announced plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan (about $4.22 billion USD) in a Shanghai IPO, aiming to modernize production lines, upgrade technology, and invest in new memory generations. Meanwhile, it has shown progress in DDR5 designs, though scaling demonstrations into mass, competitive capacity remains the most costly and demanding part of semiconductor industry development.
YMTC, on the other hand, is pursuing a different route: its experience in integration and packaging — key to stacking memory and approaching HBM — could enable it to advance without copying the exact pathways of traditional leading manufacturers.
Export controls and the paradox of blockade
This strategy faces a key obstacle: export restrictions led by the US and allies, which limit China’s access to advanced equipment (including processes below certain nodes for DRAM, advanced 3D NAND layers, and packaging technologies critical for HBM). Nonetheless, Chinese industry has continued progressing by relying on older-generation tools and a local ecosystem trying to fill gaps.
This creates a paradox for the West: the tighter the controls, the greater the incentives to accelerate self-sufficiency. Conversely, easing restrictions could alleviate global shortages — but would also facilitate the technological rise of competitors.
What can (and cannot) change if China gains influence
The expansion of CXMT and YMTC doesn’t mean they will overnight replace Samsung, SK hynix, or Micron at the forefront of memory technology. But it can have meaningful effects:
- For China, increased domestic capacity means less reliance on imports and more room to meet its own technological demands.
- For the global market, new capacity could shift price dynamics and introduce more volatility in an already cyclical sector.
- For geopolitics, every advancement in memory — especially if it approaches the HBM ecosystem — is interpreted as a strategic move, not just an industrial milestone.
In short: what’s being decided now isn’t just the price of RAM in the coming months, but who controls one of the most critical resources of the AI era. And in this game, China has chosen to accelerate.
FAQs
What is HBM memory, and why is it affecting DDR5 RAM prices in 2026?
HBM is ultra-high bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators. As factories prioritize HBM for margins and demand, capacity for conventional DDR5 decreases, putting pressure on supply and prices.
When might CXMT or YMTC’s new chips for PCs and servers become available in the market?
Industry plans point to 2027 as the key year for new capacities in Shanghai (CXMT) and Wuhan (YMTC). Adoption in final products depends on qualification, volume, and regional markets.
What does it mean that HP or Dell are evaluating Chinese memory during a shortage?
It indicates supply pressures are pushing manufacturers to diversify suppliers. It also suggests regional differences, certifications, and regulatory sensitivities may come into play.
How do export controls impact DRAM and NAND production in China?
They restrict access to advanced equipment and technologies, which can slow down the move to cutting-edge nodes. However, firms can still progress using older tools, process improvements, and local vendors, albeit less easily and with more time.
via: Jukan