ASML has once again confirmed that the massive wave of investment in AI chips continues to strongly drive the entire supply chain. The Dutch lithography equipment manufacturer closed Q1 2026 with €8.767 billion in net sales, €2.757 billion in net profit, and a gross margin of 53.0%, figures that were within or at the high end of its own guidance. At the same time, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to a range between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from the previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion.
The upward revision comes in a very specific context: ASML’s customers, especially in memory and advanced logic, are accelerating capacity expansion due to demand driven by AI. Christophe Fouquet, the group’s CEO, stated that chip demand continues to outstrip supply and that customers have increased their short- and medium-term demand expectations, supporting both the sale of new systems and improvements to the installed base.
AI sustains growth and provides margins amid restrictions
The main message of the quarter is that ASML continues to benefit from the expansion of the AI business, even in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. The company forecasts Q2 2026 net sales between €8.4 billion and €9 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. It also maintains that the new annual guidance already incorporates enough margin to absorb different scenarios related to ongoing discussions on export controls.
This point is important because part of the market is still concerned about the possible impact of new restrictions on China. ASML has not denied this risk but has emphasized that its 2026 outlook is broad enough to accommodate results that differ from those regulatory discussions. In practice, the group is indicating that the momentum of global demand for AI and memory is currently strong enough to offset much of the political uncertainty.
China loses influence, South Korea takes the lead
The less favorable aspect of the quarter for China relates to the geographic distribution of sales. According to data disclosed in the quarterly report, China’s share of sales fell to 19%, from 36% in Q4 2025. At the same time, South Korea became ASML’s largest market, accounting for 45% of quarterly sales, driven by capacity expansion among major memory manufacturers.
This decline was not entirely surprising. ASML’s CFO, Roger Dassen, had already anticipated in January that China would account for around 20% of the group’s total demand this year. Now, this scenario is starting to be reflected in actual figures. The key takeaway is that China’s retreat is not collapsing the Dutch manufacturer’s business but redistributing it to other regions where investment in memory and advanced logic continues to accelerate.
Table with actual quarterly data
Below are the main official figures for Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025, from the company’s financial report:
| Indicator | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | €9.718 billion | €8.767 billion |
| Installed Base Management | €2.134 billion | €2.488 billion |
| New systems sold | 94 | 67 |
| Used systems sold | 8 | 12 |
| Gross profit | €5.068 billion | €4.645 billion |
| Gross margin | 52.2% | 53.0% |
| Net profit | €2.840 billion | €2.757 billion |
| Basic EPS | €7.35 | €7.15 |
| Cash and short-term investments at close | €13.322 billion | €8.376 billion |
Main source: ASML’s official results for Q1 2026.
A solid quarter, though with some mixed signals
Beyond the upward revision of the annual guidance, the quarter also reveals some nuances. Net sales declined compared to Q4 2025, and the number of new systems sold also decreased from 94 to 67. However, the services and support business based on the installed base continued to grow, reaching €2.488 billion, helping stabilize revenues and margins. This mix is important because it shows that ASML is not solely dependent on large cycles of new machines but also on a increasingly profitable installed base.
The company also announced it will propose a total dividend of €7.50 per share for 2025, up 17% from the previous year, and that in the first quarter it repurchased approximately €1.1 billion worth of shares under its new 2026-2028 program. This reinforces the idea that ASML is entering this period of geopolitical tension with a very strong financial position.
Why this earnings forecast upgrade matters
This update’s significance extends far beyond ASML. The company is one of the best indicators of the sector because it sells the critical machinery used to produce many of the world’s most advanced chips. If ASML is raising its outlook amid a context of export controls on China, it indicates that the investment cycle in AI remains very alive and that memory and logic manufacturers are willing to continue expanding capacity in 2026 and beyond.
There is also a strategic message for Europe. ASML remains one of the few truly indispensable players in the global advanced semiconductor ecosystem, and its results show that the investment epicenter is shifting even more toward infrastructure supporting AI. Although China’s relative influence is diminishing, the company does not see a structural weakness in demand but rather a reconfiguration of its customer landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did ASML generate in the first quarter of 2026?
ASML reported €8.767 billion in net sales and €2.757 billion in net profit in Q1 2026.
What is ASML’s new revenue forecast for 2026?
The company now expects annual net sales between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from the previous guidance of €34 billion to €39 billion.
What happened with ASML’s sales in China?
China’s share of sales dropped to 19%, from 36% in Q4 2025, while South Korea rose to 45% and became the company’s main market.
Why does ASML continue to grow if China’s share is decreasing?
Because global demand for equipment to produce advanced chips remains fueled by AI expansion, especially in memory and advanced logic, and other regions are absorbing more investment.