Apple is evaluating ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) as a potential fourth supplier of DRAM, but the Chinese manufacturer’s available capacity could become a bigger obstacle than the political tensions between Washington and Beijing. An estimate attributed to Goldman Sachs suggests that CXMT could produce nearly 10,000 billion GB of DRAM by 2028, roughly half of the Chinese demand at that time, which would be around 20,000 billion GB.
The key points of Apple and CXMT in 20 seconds
- Apple is testing CXMT DRAM for products like iPhone and MacBook.
- The company is seeking more supply in a tense market driven by AI memory demand.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that CXMT could meet around 50% of China’s DRAM demand in 2028.
- CXMT is rapidly expanding its factories, but its production will still be highly demanded within China.
- For Apple, adding CXMT could increase capacity, though it does not guarantee lower prices.
This data is particularly relevant because it helps provide perspective on the possible relationship between Apple and CXMT. The American company might want to incorporate a new supplier to reduce dependence on Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron, but CXMT does not have unlimited memory stock waiting for new clients.
Apple has publicly acknowledged that memory market conditions are affecting its costs. During its third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report, the company explained that it paid more for memory in March than in December and even more in the June quarter. It also anticipated further price pressures after September.
Tim Cook was quite clear about the need to diversify options: currently, the top-tier DRAM market is essentially concentrated among three suppliers, and having a fourth manufacturer could help improve supply. However, the CEO also recognized that the impact on prices is much less obvious.
Apple would need hundreds of millions of GB of memory from CXMT
An estimate circulating in the market calculates that Apple sells around 50 million iPhones annually in China. If each device used an average of 12 GB of DRAM, the associated demand would amount to approximately 600 million GB per year.
This figure should be seen as an approximation, since the actual volume depends on sales of each model and the memory configurations Apple ultimately employs.
Based on certain estimates of CXMT’s D1a/G4 process production, satisfying that 600 million GB would consume about a 6.6% of its projected capacity by the end of 2026.
At first glance, this doesn’t seem like an unmanageable percentage. The problem arises when considering who competes for the same production.
CXMT has a growing domestic demand from manufacturers of phones, PCs, servers, and data centers. Among its potential and current clients are major Chinese tech companies also needing to secure memory amid a global shortage.
Therefore, Apple wouldn’t be accessing a factory with spare capacity but rather a supplier whose production capacity is increasingly in demand.
Recent reports indicate that CXMT is already nearing capacity limits for this year and has little room to add large international clients.
This explains why the Chinese manufacturer may not need to compete through aggressive discounts.
The situation is almost the opposite of what Apple usually encounters when integrating a new supplier.
CXMT is doubling capacity, but Chinese demand is still growing faster
CXMT is undertaking one of the most significant expansions in the global DRAM industry.
Counterpoint Research estimates its capacity will increase from around 320,000 wafers per month to 420,000 in 2027, supported by new facilities in Shanghai, Beijing, and Hefei. Long-term, the company plans to double capacity by 2030 and triple it by 2035.
TrendForce even forecasts more ambitious estimates for subsequent phases. Currently, CXMT operates three large 12-inch wafer factories and is developing new facilities that could bring its total capacity to over 600,000 wafers monthly once all projects are completed.
However, increasing wafer numbers doesn’t automatically mean enough chips are available for all customers.
The chart attributed to Goldman Sachs illustrates this difference precisely.
According to that estimate, CXMT’s production would have gone from about 2,500 billion GB in 2024 to around 4,000 billion in 2025 and continue growing toward 10,000 billion GB in 2028.
Total demand for DRAM in China, however, would grow even faster.
By 2028, it could approach 20,000 billion GB, meaning CXMT would meet about half of this demand.
This marks a significant step forward in China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency strategy, but it also means there would still be a substantial need for memory manufactured by Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron.
Furthermore, this forecast does not imply that those 10,000 billion GB would be freely available to clients like Apple. Much of that production would be targeted at domestic buyers.
AI is making DRAM procurement more challenging for everyone
CXMT’s growth coincides with one of the most peculiar periods in the memory market in recent years.
Artificial intelligence is absorbing large portions of production capacity.
Traditional manufacturers are allocating an increasing share of their investments and advanced lines to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI accelerators and high-performance DRAM for servers.
This reduces available flexibility across other segments.
The impact is already being felt in the computer, phone, and consumer electronics markets. Apple has acknowledged that it expects rising memory costs to continue and that supply chain capacity to offset this is limited.
CXMT benefits from this scenario because it emerges as a relevant fourth option within DRAM.
The company is also progressing from traditional products toward LPDDR5 and DDR5, which Counterpoint expects to account for about 75% of its production as capacity increases.
This is precisely the type of memory that may appeal to smartphone, PC, and server manufacturers.
But the shortage also enhances CXMT’s negotiating power.
Apple typically leverages its massive purchasing volume to obtain better terms from suppliers. In the current scenario, CXMT may have less incentive to offer steep discounts because it already has enough customers to absorb its production.
CXMT can assist Apple but is unlikely to replace Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron
Adding CXMT would be useful for Apple even if its chips were not cheaper.
A fourth supplier would help diversify supply risk.
Apple might use CXMT-produced DRAM mainly in devices sold within China and reserve more memory from Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron for other regions.
The company is already testing CXMT chips in products like iPhone and MacBook, but there’s no official confirmation that CXMT has been approved as a commercial vendor yet.
The political issue also remains unresolved.
CXMT is among the companies identified by the U.S. as sensitive from a national security perspective. Apple could acquire certain commercial components, but restrictions exist around transferring U.S. technology and the level of technical collaboration permitted.
This is especially problematic for Apple because it usually works closely with its suppliers to customize memory and other components for its designs.
Even if Washington were to provide increased regulatory certainty, the industrial challenge remains: CXMT must first satisfy an enormous and growing domestic demand.
The Chinese manufacturer could become a key part of Apple’s supply chain, but the available figures do not suggest it can replace its three main current suppliers in the short term.
The most likely scenario is less dramatic: CXMT can offer Apple an additional source of DRAM and some leverage in negotiations as China rapidly increases its self-sufficiency.
However, even by 2028, if Goldman Sachs’ production forecasts hold true, the Chinese industry alone would still need to import roughly half of the DRAM it consumes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Apple already buying DRAM from CXMT?
Apple is testing and qualifying CXMT memory for products like iPhone and MacBook, but a large-scale commercial adoption has not yet been confirmed.
How much memory would Apple need from CXMT?
An estimate based on 50 million iPhones sold annually in China and 12 GB per device suggests a need of about 600 million GB per year. This is a rough calculation, not an official figure from Apple.
What will CXMT produce by 2028?
An estimate attributed to Goldman Sachs puts its production at around 10,000 billion GB of DRAM in 2028, approximately half of the expected demand in China. This is a projection, not an existing capacity.
Will CXMT enable Apple to buy cheaper memory?
Not necessarily. Tim Cook has acknowledged that having more suppliers can clearly help with supply, but its effect on prices is uncertain. The current high demand also gives CXMT greater negotiation power.
