Memory shortages are once again shaking up the tech industry, but this time with an especially delicate ingredient: suspicion that Apple may be leveraging market tension to strengthen its position against rival smartphone manufacturers. This is the central thesis of a new report by analyst Hyung-Geun Ryu from Daishin Securities, which suggests that Cupertino has increased its aggressive memory purchasing amid the shortage, further pressuring Chinese competitors and accelerating a price spiral that already threatens to disrupt both the mobile and data center markets. The interpretation is compelling, but it’s important to underline one key point: this is an analyst’s perspective, not an official confirmation from Apple.
What is fully documented is the underlying context. Gartner predicts that annual prices for DRAM will rise by 125% in 2026 and NAND flash by 234%, with significant relief not expected until late 2027. In parallel, the consulting firm warned in February that memory cost increases could lead to an 8.4% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026. This pressure isn’t theoretical: Reuters reported in January that Apple had already warned about a significant increase in memory prices, while Samsung and SK Hynix redirect capacity toward higher-value AI-linked products.
Apple Gains Market Share While the Rest Struggles with Shortages
Daishin’s report claims Apple has raised its target for iPhone shipments this year to 240 million units. Although not publicly confirmed by the company, this figure aligns with recent positive sales trends. According to Counterpoint Research, cited by Reuters, Apple led global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2026, with a 5% year-over-year growth, even amid a broader market weakened by memory shortages and softer demand. Reuters also reported in March that Apple’s sales in China increased by 23% in early 2026, diverging from the trend of other Android manufacturers.
Beyond that, Daishin suggests that Apple has been aggressively accumulating memory to secure its production capacity in a time when other manufacturers are finding it harder to ensure supply. While this does not constitute definitive proof of a deliberate strategy to “squeeze” competitors, it fits a common pattern in tight component markets: the one with greater financial resources and demand visibility typically secures capacity earlier and under better conditions. Reuters has already indicated that in January, Apple could better withstand memory price hikes compared to its rivals, while mid- and low-end manufacturers suffered more substantially.
According to some notes from the report, Chinese manufacturers may have accepted mobile memory prices in the second quarter of 2026 that are between 90% and 100% higher than the previous quarter, following similar increases in the first quarter. Daishin also indicates that mobile prices might rise around 80% quarter-over-quarter during this same period. While firms like Gartner or TrendForce haven’t confirmed this specific figure, there are signs of a strong surge. TrendForce already projected at the end of March that conventional DRAM contract prices would increase between 58% and 63% quarterly in 2Q26, and NAND prices between 70% and 75%, with a particularly intense “recovery jump” for smartphones.
The Shortage Is No Longer Just Affecting Mobile
One of the most interesting aspects of Daishin’s report is how it connects the mobile market with the AI data center world. The analyst argues that the lack of DRAM capacity is forcing downward revisions of expected HBM4E configurations, which were originally anticipated in stacked 16-high and 20-high setups, but are now tending toward 12-high and 16-high. This assertion isn’t officially confirmed by major manufacturers but aligns with ongoing sector discussions about performance, stacking height, energy consumption, and DRAM capacity availability. TrendForce previously noted in January that NVIDIA was pushing for 12-layer HBM4, with increasing pressure toward 16 layers expected in the second half of 2026, and that SK Hynix showcased a 16-layer 48 GB HBM4 at CES.
Additionally, the report suggests that the evolution of HBM4E toward speeds of 15–16 Gbps would raise the so-called trade ratio between conventional DRAM and HBM from around 3:1 to about 5:1. This ratio indicates how much DRAM production capacity is “consumed” by transitioning to HBM, a critical issue since AI growth is diverting resources previously used for standard memory in PCs, smartphones, and SSDs. Although this specific ratio is still an industry estimate, the overarching conclusion aligns with current market dynamics: the rise of AI is draining capacity and increasing costs across memory segments.
Samsung and SK Hynix: The Biggest Beneficiaries
On the stock market front, Daishin sharply revises its forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, driven by rising memory prices and AI-related demand pressure throughout the supply chain. The firm raises its estimated operating profit for Samsung in 2026 from 307 trillion won to 342 trillion, and for 2027 from 335 trillion to 410 trillion. For SK Hynix, new estimates increase from 232 trillion to 263 trillion in 2026, and from 260 trillion to 332 trillion in 2027. Their price targets are also raised accordingly. As noted, these are projections from an analysis firm, not official company guidance.
Nevertheless, the core of this thesis isn’t surprising. Samsung and SK Hynix are potential winners in this new market landscape, not only in mobile memory but also in server DRAM, HBM, and supplies for AI accelerators. Reuters previously highlighted how South Korean giants are shifting production toward more profitable AI-related products, reducing supply for consumer electronics. Moreover, Gartner predicts the global semiconductor business will exceed $1.32 trillion in 2026, with memory as the main growth driver.
In summary, Daishin may exaggerate the more confrontational part of its thesis by suggesting Apple is using shortages as a strategic weapon, but it underscores an increasingly visible reality: AI is reshaping the memory market so profoundly that it no longer only affects data centers and GPUs, but also iPhones, Android devices, SSDs, and the competitive balance in consumer electronics. Apple appears to be better positioned than most to navigate this storm. Even if this isn’t a deliberate maneuver, that advantage alone is significant.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Apple confirmed it aims to sell 240 million iPhones in 2026?
No. This figure comes from the Daishin Securities report and has not been officially confirmed by Apple. What is confirmed is that Apple led global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2026, according to Counterpoint and Reuters.
Are mobile memory prices really rising that much?
The exact figures from Daishin haven’t been confirmed by Apple or memory manufacturers, but TrendForce and Gartner agree that 2026 is seeing very strong increases in DRAM and NAND, especially affecting smartphones and consumer electronics.
How is AI related to the mobile memory shortage?
The expansion of AI is redirecting manufacturing capacity toward HBM, server DRAM, and data center memory, leaving less room for conventional products used in smartphones, PCs, and SSDs. Reuters and Gartner have been warning about this effect for months.
Who advantages and who suffers in this scenario?
Major memory manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix benefit, while mobile and electronics manufacturers with less purchasing power suffer more from component inflation. Apple, due to its size and market position, appears better protected than many rivals.
Sources: Daishin Securities / Hyung-Geun Ryu and Jukan on X