For months, a part of the tech debate has revolved around an almost inevitable idea: Artificial Intelligence was going to start replacing jobs en masse and rapidly. News of layoffs at major tech companies, often accompanied by references to automation or productivity improvements thanks to AI, have reinforced that feeling. However, the data beginning to surface from Europe paints a much more nuanced picture.
The European Central Bank published this week an analysis that questions this alarmist narrative, at least in the short term. Its main conclusion is clear: for now, there is no significant difference in job destruction or creation between companies that claim to use Artificial Intelligence and those that do not. Moreover, when observing companies that make intensive use of this technology, the pattern goes against what many fear: these firms are, on average, more likely to hire than to cut staff.
The ECB sees more hiring than job loss in highly AI-intensive companies
The ECB’s study, based on its survey on access to business financing, states that companies that use Artificial Intelligence significantly have about a 4% higher chance of adding personnel. In the case of firms that also invest in AI, the likelihood of hiring is nearly 2% higher than those that do not.
The key lies in how this technology is used. According to ECB economists, employment growth is mainly concentrated in companies that use AI for research, development, and innovation—areas that typically drive business growth. In other words, when AI is used to open new capacities or accelerate projects, it doesn’t necessarily replace jobs but can generate demand for new, especially skilled, profiles.
That doesn’t mean AI is harmless for the labor market or that it won’t eventually impact staffing levels in the future. In fact, the ECB itself leaves that possibility open and emphasizes that its conclusions relate to the current moment and a one-year horizon. But it does debunk part of the more common narrative in recent months: that companies are firing en masse because they’ve already replaced a significant part of their teams with AI.
Contrasting with the layoffs actually announced “due to AI”
This nuance is especially interesting when placed alongside some recent cases. One of the most notable involved Block, the financial company led by Jack Dorsey, which announced in late February the layoffs of over 4,000 employees—almost half its staff—as part of a reorganization in which the company explicitly linked the decision to the deployment of AI tools.
Reuters pointed out that these types of announcements are no longer anecdotal. Their tally puts the number of jobs cut in AI-related operations at over 61,000 since November, with names like Amazon, Pinterest, or WiseTech among companies that have linked part of their adjustments to this technological shift. The problem is that this explanation alone doesn’t always fully clarify what is happening.
In many cases, layoffs are still driven by much more traditional factors: post-pandemic overhiring, stock market pressures, cost-cutting needs, slowing business segments, or immediate profitability demands. AI then appears as an argument for modernization or efficiency improvements, but not necessarily as the sole or primary cause. That’s why the ECB’s data is so significant: it forces us to separate corporate narratives from available evidence.
The promised productivity gains are still not clear
The other big question is whether AI is already generating the productivity revolution many companies promise investors and markets. Signs of caution are also starting to appear here. A study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, based on an international survey of nearly 6,000 financial executives and managers across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, concludes that over 80% of companies have not seen impact on employment or productivity in the past three years.
The same study shows an interesting paradox. About 70% of companies already use AI, but the usage time among many top executives remains limited. Moreover, although most do not yet perceive clear productivity improvements, they expect AI to increase productivity by 1.4%, boost output by 0.8%, and reduce employment by 0.7% over the next three years. In other words, the transformative effect remains more in expectations than in visible results.
This helps explain why the debate about employment and Artificial Intelligence remains so confusing. On one side, there are concrete examples of companies justifying layoffs through automation. On the other, macro and corporate evidence still doesn’t show widespread substitution of human labor. What is more occurring, rather, is an uneven transition: some tasks do change, roles are redefined, and some companies hire new specialists while others leverage the context to shed staff.
At least for now, Europe’s picture, as offered by the ECB, is less apocalyptic than headlines often suggest. AI isn’t causing a wave of widespread job destruction. It might even be accompanying growth processes in the companies that adopt it more seriously, especially when linked to innovation and development. The risk, however, does not disappear: it remains for repetitive roles, more standardized functions, and companies that seek to use automation purely as a cost-cutting lever.
The most reasonable conclusion today is that Artificial Intelligence is neither saving nor destroying jobs outright. Reality appears much more complex. For now, data points to AI reordering priorities, shifting investments, and changing work organization without causing a large-scale net job destruction. And that, at least for now, tempers one of the biggest fears surrounding this new technological era.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Artificial Intelligence destroying jobs in Europe in 2026?
According to the latest analysis from the European Central Bank, there is currently no significant difference in job destruction between companies that use AI and those that do not. In fact, companies that use it intensively are slightly more likely to hire.
What exactly does the ECB say about companies that use AI the most?
The ECB states that companies with intensive AI usage are about 4% more likely to hire personnel, and those that invest in AI have nearly 2% higher chances of hiring than those that don’t.
So why are some tech companies laying off workers due to AI?
Because corporate announcements don’t always reflect the full reality. Factors such as margin pressures, post-pandemic overhiring, cost-cutting measures, or internal reorganizations also play a role. AI can be part of the explanation but isn’t always the sole cause.
Is AI already significantly improving company productivity?
Not yet in a clear and widespread way. A study by the NBER involving nearly 6,000 executives indicates that over 80% of companies haven’t seen impact on employment or productivity over the past three years, though many expect this effect to materialize in the future.