NextEra Energy has raised its demand forecast from data centers and other large electric consumers in Florida from 6 to 8 GW by 2032. The revision impacts Florida Power & Light (FPL), its state subsidiary, which already has approximately 21 GW of projects interested in connecting to its grid, with 12 GW in advanced negotiations.
The key points about NextEra’s data centers in 20 seconds
- FPL raises its large load forecast from 6 to 8 GW by 2032.
- NextEra has 21 GW of interested projects and 12 GW in advanced negotiations.
- Part of the new demand could connect starting in 2028.
- A specific tariff requires large customers to bear the cost of necessary infrastructure.
- The company is studying 30 major energy nodes across the United States.
The utility expects to announce at least one agreement under the new tariff for large consumers before the end of 2026. Some of these projects could begin operation in 2028, though having commercial discussions does not guarantee that all data centers in the portfolio will be built.
NextEra Energy’s CEO, John Ketchum, explained during the second-quarter earnings presentation that the company continues to receive strong interest in Florida and expects to close its first significant deal before the end of the year.
The figures show the scale of electrical demand driven by artificial intelligence. Eight gigawatts equate to the capacity of several large industrial complexes and would require building new generation, substations, transmission lines, and backup systems.
A tariff to prevent costs from falling on households
The growth of data centers has sparked a debate in the U.S. about who should pay for the investments needed to connect them to the grid. These facilities can consume hundreds of megawatts continuously, prompting utilities to expand their infrastructure even before the project is operational.
Since January 1, 2026, Florida Power & Light has had two specific contractual tariffs for large loads, called Large-Load Contract Service 1 and 2. The scheme was approved by the Florida Public Service Commission as part of the company’s rate agreement.
The measure aims to reduce the risk that a project is announced, requires investments, and then is delayed or canceled. Under this structure, the large customer must bear the costs associated with their connection and any new generation capacity required to serve them.
One component of this is the Incremental Generation Charge, a fee that allows the large consumer to finance 100% of the new generation needed for their project, according to FPL. The utility states that this mechanism protects residential customers from possible cost overruns associated with data centers.
Specific conditions depend on the service type and the agreement with each customer. The tariffs also establish limits related to available capacity, the anticipated connection date, and supply voltage, which can be 69 kV or higher.
Having a request does not necessarily mean capacity is contracted. The utilities’ portfolios may include duplicate projects, developers consulting multiple locations, or developments still lacking funding, permits, or final clients.
Therefore, the 21 GW of interest reported by NextEra should be viewed as a commercial portfolio. The 12 GW in advanced negotiations provide a stronger signal but still surpass the 8 GW the company includes in its forecast for 2032.
NextEra prepares up to 40 major energy nodes
The company’s plan extends beyond Florida. NextEra is analyzing around 30 potential data center energy nodes across the U.S. and expects to increase this number to 40 by year’s end.
The strategy involves concentrating several generation projects and large consumers around locations with access to land, transmission lines, and energy resources. The goal is to reduce the time between a data center’s application and the actual availability of electricity.
NextEra aims to develop 15 GW of new capacity for large loads before 2035, with an optimistic scenario reaching 30 GW or more. These figures are corporate targets, not already contracted or under construction capacity.
The company proposes combining various technologies depending on the project phase. Initial needs might be met with solar or wind plants, which can sometimes be developed within 12 to 18 months. Later, gas plants, batteries, and other sources could be integrated to provide more stable power.
This approach addresses one of the sector’s current challenges: although data centers can be built quickly using modular designs, constructing a new power plant or high-voltage line requires more permits, equipment, and construction time.
Renewable energies can provide capacity earlier, but their output varies with weather. Gas offers manageable generation, and batteries can shift energy and respond to rapid changes. However, none alone can replace a sufficiently sized grid.
NextEra indicates that it is studying up to 9.5 GW of new gas generation in Texas and Pennsylvania. It is also exploring around 6 GW in potential projects with small modular reactors (SMRs) located near existing nuclear facilities.
These nuclear opportunities are under evaluation. SMRs face long regulatory processes, uncertain costs, and schedules that may not align with urgent connection needs from data center operators.
The Duane Arnold nuclear plant will supply Google
NextEra’s most advanced digital demand-related nuclear project does not involve a modular reactor. It is the recovery of the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa, shut down in 2020.
The plant has an approximate capacity of 615 MW and is under a long-term power purchase agreement with Google. NextEra expects it to resume supplying electricity to the grid during the first quarter of 2029, pending regulatory approvals.
NextEra also agreed to acquire the 30% stake still owned by Central Iowa Power Cooperative and Corn Belt Power Cooperative. This move will give the company full control of the facility once conditions are met.
This agreement does not necessarily mean that electricity will travel directly from the plant to a specific data center. A power purchase agreement guarantees Google the supply under certain conditions, while the physical energy is fed into the regional grid.
Reactivating Duane Arnold reflects the interest of major tech companies in maintaining continuous, low-emission generation. Nuclear plants can operate many hours a year—a valuable trait for 24/7 facilities.
However, restarting a closed facility requires equipment reviews, hiring staff, refueling, and obtaining approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The 2029 timeline remains subject to these processes.
Energy availability influences where data centers are built
For years, choosing a data center location primarily depended on land cost, fiber connectivity, taxes, and proximity to users. Electricity availability has become equally or more important.
AI projects require vast amounts of concentrated power. Developers often request reserves exceeding their initial load to add new GPU generations without relocating.
Florida offers a growing economy, extensive metropolitan areas, and international connections. However, hurricane risks, cooling needs, and seasonal residential demand spikes also influence infrastructure reinforcement.
FPL’s forecast of 8 GW does not imply full utilization from day one. Data centers usually ramp up over time and take years to reach contracted loads.
The difference between initial requests and actual demand will be crucial for NextEra. Underestimating capacity might delay projects; overestimating could lead to underutilized infrastructure and higher financial costs.
The new tariff is designed to shift more of this risk to large consumers. While leading to more contractual commitments, it also provides a clearer pathway to finance the electrical infrastructure needed.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much capacity does NextEra forecast for data centers in Florida?
NextEra estimates that data centers and other large loads could reach 8 GW in the Florida Power & Light area by 2032.
Are the 21 GW of announced projects confirmed?
No. They represent accumulated interest within the commercial portfolio. About 12 GW are in advanced negotiations, but projects may still change, be delayed, or canceled.
Who will pay for the new electrical infrastructure?
The FPL tariff is designed so that large consumers bear the costs associated with their connection and any additional generation needed to supply them.
When will the Duane Arnold nuclear plant resume operation?
NextEra expects the plant to be operational again in the first quarter of 2029, pending regulatory approvals.
