Memory prices will continue to increase in the third quarter of 2026, though at a slower pace than in previous months. The demand for AI servers, the pressure on data center memory, and the shift of capacity toward higher-margin products maintain the market in tension, despite weakening consumption in PCs, mobile devices, and traditional electronics.
According to the latest forecasts from TrendForce, contractual prices for conventional DRAM will rise between 13% and 18% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter. In NAND Flash, the expected increase will be between 10% and 15%. These are smaller increases than those recorded in the second quarter, but they confirm that the market has not yet returned to a normal phase.
AI sustains demand despite consumer slowdown
The most striking detail is not just the rising prices but that they are increasing amid declining consumer demand. Many users are delaying purchases of PCs, laptops, smartphones, or SSDs because prices have already risen sharply over recent quarters. This reduced willingness to pay is beginning to impact device manufacturers, but it’s not enough to cool the market.
The reason lies in data centers. AI inference loads, large-scale deployments, and server purchases continue to absorb memory at a rapid pace. TrendForce notes that the DRAM market will remain highly tight in the third quarter, as suppliers prioritize applications related to AI and servers over lower-margin segments.
The clear consequence for end users is that, although consumer demand weakens, memory prices do not fall because available capacity is being allocated where it is most profitable. Domestic buyers indirectly compete with data centers that require RDIMM, HBM, and enterprise SSDs to train, serve, and operate AI models.
| Product | Q2 2026 | Estimated Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Conventional DRAM | +58% to +63% | +13% to +18% |
| HBM blended | +53% to +58% | +8% to +13% |
| NAND Flash | +55% to +60% | +10% to +15% |
The table shows a slowdown compared to the previous quarter, but not a change in trend. The increase moderates because the comparison base is already very high and consumer clients have reached their tolerance limit. Still, server pressure keeps the price floor well above the usual levels of 2024 and 2025.
Laptops, smartphones, and SSDs will feel the impact
In the PC market, manufacturers will continue buying memory to replenish inventories, but the more expensive components will ultimately be reflected in laptop prices. TrendForce warns that retail prices for notebooks could rise broadly as inventories incorporate memory purchased at higher costs.
This effect will also be felt in smartphones. Brands will have to absorb higher costs for LPDRAM and may pass some of this pressure onto the final price. The problem is that raising prices in a weaker demand environment could reduce sales, so manufacturers are being more cautious with their production and purchasing plans.
The scenario is similarly challenging for graphics cards and gaming laptops. Demand for GDDR6 and GDDR7 is not growing as expected, but supply remains constrained by reallocations towards other products. The result is a rise in line with the overall trend in DRAM, although the industry’s real focus remains on servers, AI, and HBM.
In NAND Flash, the situation varies by segment. Consumer SSDs, USB drives, and cards continue to experience weak demand, but enterprise SSDs remain tight due to data center growth. Suppliers are allocating more capacity to these higher-margin products, limiting availability in consumer segments and keeping prices on the rise.
Memory has become a strategic piece of AI infrastructure
The increase in memory prices reflects a fundamental shift in the tech supply chain. For years, DRAM and NAND markets followed cyclical patterns with periods of excess inventory and sharp price declines. The explosion of AI has disrupted that pattern because it has created a new, enormous, and sustained demand for high-value products.
Major cloud providers and AI infrastructure deployments are seeking to secure supply through long-term agreements. This provides greater visibility for memory manufacturers but reduces margins for PC, mobile, and retail component buyers. Practically, capacity is being directed toward HBM, RDIMM, LPDRAM for accelerators, and enterprise SSDs.
Time is also a factor. Increasing semiconductor manufacturing capacity isn’t achievable overnight. New lines, expansions, and process changes take years to translate into real volume. Therefore, even with softer consumer demand, the market can remain tight until new capacity comes online or AI demand stabilizes.
Q3 2026 is unlikely to bring the relief many anticipated. The increase will be smaller than in Q2 but will continue to raise costs for servers, laptops, SSDs, and mobile devices. AI is not only boosting GPU demand but is also making memory one of the most contested resources across the entire tech industry.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much will DRAM increase in Q3 2026?
TrendForce expects a quarter-over-quarter rise of 13% to 18% for conventional DRAM.
Will SSD prices also go up?
Yes. NAND Flash, the basis for SSDs and other storage systems, could increase between 10% and 15% in the third quarter.
Why is memory prices rising if fewer PCs and mobile devices are being sold?
Because AI data centers are still purchasing large volumes of DRAM, HBM, and enterprise SSDs, and manufacturers prioritize these higher-margin products.
