The memory crisis is no longer an issue hidden within the supply chain. It is beginning to become a factor capable of changing what is sold, at what price, and who can still buy. Gartner has issued an especially grim forecast for 2026: global PC shipments will fall by 10.4%, and smartphone shipments by 8.4% compared to 2025. For the firm, this would be the strongest contraction in consumer devices in over a decade.
According to the consultancy, the trigger is the rising cost of DRAM and SSDs. Gartner estimates that the combined price of both components could increase by 130% by the end of 2026. This would push the average price of PCs up by 17% and smartphones by 13% compared to the previous year. The immediate consequence would be a market much more skewed toward high-end devices, while entry-level models would lose appeal, margins, and in some cases, viability.
Affordable computers enter a zone of real risk
The most striking aspect of Gartner’s report isn’t just the projected decline in shipments but the diagnosis regarding the future of budget PCs. The firm believes that the cost of memory within a computer will go from representing 16% of the material cost in 2025 to 23% in 2026. That seemingly technical increase has a very direct effect: leaving little margin for many manufacturers to continue selling cheap laptops without losing money.
That’s why Gartner goes a step further and presents an idea that until recently might have seemed exaggerated: the entry-level PC segment below $500 could disappear by 2028. It doesn’t mean that affordable devices will cease to exist overnight, but it does point toward a gradual reduction in the cheapest offerings—precisely in the segment where price matters most.
The impact wouldn’t stop there. The consultancy also believes that rising costs will delay the expansion of so-called AI PCs—computers equipped for advanced Artificial Intelligence functions. According to their forecast, the 50% market penetration, which some manufacturers considered relatively close, wouldn’t be reached until 2028. In other words, hardware designed for the new wave of smart software will depend not just on demand but also on remaining reasonably affordable.
IDC predicts an even tougher outlook for 2026 and 2027
Gartner isn’t the only firm seeing a serious storm ahead in the sector. IDC has also updated its forecasts, painting an even worse picture for PCs. The consultancy expects an 11.3% drop globally in 2026, but with an awkward paradox: sector revenues could grow by 1.6% due to increases in average prices. Put simply, fewer units will be sold, but at higher prices.
For smartphones, IDC is even more pessimistic than Gartner, projecting a 12.9% decline in 2026. The firm believes that memory tensions will persist throughout the year and likely into 2027. Although the pace of price increases could moderate in the second half of this year, IDC does not expect a return to 2025 prices within the current forecast horizon.
This agreement between the two firms lends considerable weight to the core message: we are not just facing a temporary spike in the cost of some components but a deeper distortion caused by competition for available capacity. The growth of AI infrastructure is competing for the same DRAM and NAND required for laptops, desktops, phones, and other consumer devices. When that competition becomes so unequal, the small, price-sensitive market segment is usually the first to suffer.
Less upgrading, more second-hand purchases, and increased pressure on manufacturers
The problem affects more than just sales figures. Gartner believes that, due to rising costs, the average lifespan of a PC will extend by 15% among business buyers and 20% among consumers by the end of 2026. This means longer upgrade cycles, fewer impulsive purchases, and more users stretching their old devices longer.
This change has several consequences. For consumers, it means paying more for the same type of device or sticking with their old one for another year or two. For companies, it involves extending fleets of devices that may already be just adequate for new workloads or future security requirements. For manufacturers, the choice is even clearer: accept selling fewer units to protect margins or pursue volume at the expense of profitability.
Similarly, in mobile phones, especially in the lower-end segment, a comparable trend is expected. Gartner anticipates that price-sensitive buyers will quickly turn to second-hand or refurbished markets, while the premium segment will fare better due to higher margins. The result will be a more polarized market: less space for budget devices and greater focus on expensive or reused options.
In this light, 2026 could become the year the industry begins to accept an uncomfortable reality: the era of affordable, easily upgradable devices may be nearing its end—at least as long as memory costs remain in this dynamic. And if the bottleneck isn’t eased in 2027, as several consultancies fear, the industry will need to get used to selling fewer units, at higher prices, with a user base that takes longer to upgrade equipment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why will PC sales drop so much in 2026 according to Gartner?
Because the sharp increase in DRAM and SSD costs will raise device prices, reduce the affordable catalog, and cause companies and consumers to delay upgrading their devices.
Will cheap laptops under $500 really disappear?
Gartner doesn’t say they will vanish immediately, but it predicts that this segment will become unviable by 2028 due to the rising weight of memory costs in the total manufacturing expense.
What’s the relation between AI and the rising PC prices?
The expansion of data centers and AI systems is consuming much of the DRAM and NAND capacity, leaving less supply for consumer electronics and pushing prices upwards.
Is it worth waiting to buy a computer or mobile device in 2026?
It depends, but both Gartner and IDC warn of a critical window in the first half of 2026 and high prices through 2027, so waiting does not necessarily guarantee better conditions in the short term.