A new rumor circulating on social media and sector forums points to a symbolic—and potentially costly—shift in the relationship between Apple and TSMC: the possibility that Cupertino is no longer TSMC’s “preferred customer,” and therefore might face more aggressive price hikes to secure capacity on advanced nodes. This hypothesis, for now without official confirmation, is based on a real and measurable phenomenon: the center of gravity at TSMC shifting from consumer electronics toward high-performance computing (HPC) driven by AI.
The key takeaway is twofold. On one hand, AI-related demand (accelerators, custom chips, networks, and related systems) competes for the same cutting-edge nodes that have historically dominated mobile SoCs. On the other hand, this demand tends to come with long-term contracts, higher price tolerance, and urgency to secure volume. In this context, the “privilege” of reserving capacity first and negotiating better terms may become more fragile than it was five years ago.
What Data Shows: HPC Is Now the Main Driver for TSMC
Although TSMC does not publicly break down the exact weight of each customer, it offers a clear segmentation overview. In its Management Report for Q4 2025, the company indicates HPC as the primary revenue driver, accounting for 53% of revenue in Q4 2025 (and 52% for the full year 2025), while Smartphone makes up 35% in Q4 2025 (and 36% for the year).
This distribution matters because HPC often consumes more silicon per unit (large dies, advanced packaging, HBM, complex platforms) and tends to “pay” better for priority, packaging, and capacity. In other words: although Apple remains a huge customer, growth—and part of the margin—is increasingly linked to the AI wave.
Price Pressure Is Not Just a Theory: Advanced Nodes Cost More… and Have a Backlog
Adding to demand tension is the technological reality: transitioning to nodes like N2 increases complexity, costs, and risk. In their annual report, TSMC already frames 2025–2026 as a phase of accelerated nodes and technology deployment: mentioning N2 volume production starting in the second half of 2025 and A16 in the second half of 2026, while emphasizing the growing contribution of advanced technologies in the revenue mix.
Meanwhile, the wafer mix itself demonstrates how concentrated the business is in cutting-edge processes: in Q4 2025, 3 nm accounts for 26% of wafer revenues, 5 nm for 34%, and 7 nm for 14%, according to the quarterly report.
With these percentages, any reordering of priorities—even marginal—could lead to:
- Higher wafer costs,
- Reduced schedule flexibility,
- And margin pressures for those unable to pass costs along.
What About the Rumor That Apple Is No Longer the “Number 1 Customer”?
This is where it’s important to separate facts from speculation. Reports suggest that Apple may have lost its top spot in revenue contribution, and that TSMC might be pushing for a “large” price increase. International media have covered this as supply chain rumor, but there is currently no public confirmation from TSMC or Apple to confirm this as fact.
What aligns with official data is the context that makes this tension plausible: if HPC is now TSMC’s largest segment, and advanced nodes are more in demand, any customer wanting priority in 2026 will have to pay for it, whether through direct pricing, volume commitments, or technological packages (node + packaging + testing + logistics).
Realistic Scenarios for 2026: From the “Invisible Price Increase” to a More Expensive iPhone
Practically, Apple has three (combination of) options to absorb increased manufacturing costs:
| Scenario | What Apple Would Do | Likely Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Absorb part of the cost | Protect market share and sales | Margin pressure (more sensitive in non-Pro ranges) |
| Pass it on through higher prices | Raise retail prices or keep prices stable with fewer incentives | More expensive iPhones/Macs or less aggressive promotions |
| Optimize product mix | Push premium lines and services | Noticeable increases in Pro models/storage options |
Recent history suggests Apple typically combines product line optimization and margin control, but maneuvering room depends on demand cycles, currency fluctuations, and competitive pressures.
What Market and Users Should Watch in the Coming Weeks
- Official communications: Any public statements by Apple or TSMC regarding “pricing,” “capacity,” or “long-term agreements.”
- Signs of mix shifts: Increased proportion of Pro/Ultra models (in mobile and PC) often indicates cost pressures.
- N2 capacity and schedule: If the N2 backlog grows longer, the cost to “secure a slot” tends to increase.
- HPC business evolution: If it exceeds 50% of total revenue, capacity negotiations will remain skewed toward AI demands.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this mean the iPhone will definitely increase in price in 2026?
Not necessarily. The increase could come as a higher retail price, but it might also mean fewer promotions, configuration changes (storage options), or a greater push for premium models. The rumor isn’t confirmed, but the cost pressures on advanced nodes are real.
Why does AI impact TSMC so much if Apple still sells millions of iPhones?
Because TSMC measures its significance based on revenue and technological mix, and the HPC segment is already leading: 53% in Q4 2025 versus 35% from Smartphones, according to their quarterly report.
How does the 2 nm node relate to prices?
Advanced nodes typically involve greater investment, complexity, and ramp-up challenges. TSMC expects N2 to be in volume production in the second half of 2025, and A16 in the second half of 2026, indicating a transitional period with cost and capacity pressures.
How can users protect themselves from potential price hikes?
If planning to upgrade in 2026, it’s wise to watch for two signals: product announcements (especially Pro lines) and price trend patterns during early launches. If pressure mounts, the secondary market and purchasing during promotional windows may become smarter options.