The global semiconductor industry is on track to cross a symbolic and economic threshold that has seemed distant for decades: surpassing $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2026. This is the projection outlined by Omdia in their latest market analysis, attributing the leap primarily to the acceleration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the ripple effect it is creating in two critical areas of the business: memory (DRAM and NAND) and logic (processors and accelerators).
The report forecasts industry revenue growth for 2026 at around 30.7% year-over-year, revising upward their estimate for 2025 to +20.3%. Omdia’s analysis is clear: this isn’t a “uniform” rebound driven by recovery in consumption, but rather a cycle fueled by highly concentrated investments in infrastructure and AI-related workloads.
An increasingly “data-centric” market: more servers, more memory, higher prices
Breaking down by segments, Omdia indicates that Computing & Data Storage will lead growth in 2026, with a jump of 41.4% and over $500 billion in revenue, supported by demand for data center servers, memory-intensive applications, and a scenario of rising memory prices.
This combination explains why memory is back at the forefront. Modern training and inference systems require not only computational power but also bandwidth, capacity, and increasingly sophisticated memory hierarchies. When the market comes under pressure, the impact swiftly translates into higher prices and reduced availability, affecting both infrastructure providers and consumer electronics.
Omdia adds another factor with direct supply chain implications: hyperscalers (large cloud platforms) are expected to allocate around $500 billion in CapEx this year, with investments shifting toward AI infrastructure, model development, and new applications.
Key nuance: record growth, but not “widespread”
One of the most revealing parts of Omdia’s analysis emphasizes the concentration of growth. According to the firm, if the contribution from memory and logic is excluded, the overall revenue growth of the sector in 2026 would fall from 30.7% to around 8%. In other words: the cycle isn’t driven by broad recovery in consumption or industry, but by focused, intensive demand for AI.
This helps explain why, despite the surge, not all subsectors are advancing at the same pace or with the same visibility. It also introduces a vulnerability: if AI investments slow down, get delayed, or become even more concentrated among a few players, the market could become more volatile than usual.
Comparative forecasts: Omdia (record) vs. WSTS (almost a trillion)
To contextualize this milestone, it’s helpful to compare Omdia’s view with another industry reference, WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics). In their fall forecast, WSTS already anticipated a market approaching $1 trillion in 2026, although not surpassing it.
| Source | Global Revenue 2025 | Global Revenue 2026 | Growth in 2026 | Main Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omdia | Revised upward: +20.3% YoY | > $1 trillion (first year above) | +30.7% | Strongly driven by AI, especially memory and logic |
| WSTS | $772 billion | $975 billion | ≈ +26% | Market “almost a trillion” in 2026; strong growth but below the threshold |
This divergence doesn’t necessarily imply contradiction; rather, it reflects differences in methodologies, timeframes, and assumptions about memory prices, product mix, and AI infrastructure deployment pace. In any case, both perspectives agree on the core idea: 2026 will be an exceptional year for the chip business, with the center of gravity shifting toward data centers and memory-intensive systems.
Collateral effects: consumption, smartphones, and connected devices
While the core growth driver is in data centers, Omdia also projects a significant contribution from consumer electronics and wireless applications. Factors mentioned include the impact of memory prices, the arrival of new devices (including foldables), and the push of AI-related features in photography and high-end devices. Additionally, the report highlights improvements in wearables, smart speakers, and virtual reality headsets.
The end-user perspective is less optimistic: when industrial demand pulls critical components, consumers may feel the pressure through higher prices, fewer promotions, or more irregular availability cycles, especially in segments relying on high-capacity memory.
Macro and supply chain risks: the “but” of the scenario
Omdia accompanies its outlook with a list of risks that could temper growth: inflation (with concerns centered on the U.S.), rising labor and energy costs, supply chain disruptions caused by reorganization and public policies, as well as scarcity or price volatility resulting from the intense AI investment race.
In other words: the trillion-dollar milestone is not guaranteed but plausible in an environment where AI investments maintain momentum and the industry can absorb capacity tensions without prolonged bottlenecks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean for the semiconductor market to surpass $1 trillion?
It means that the total global sales of chips (memory, logic, and others) will reach over $1 trillion for the first time, a milestone reflecting both demand volume and value growth in key categories.
Why is AI driving such high memory demand (DRAM and NAND)?
Because training and running models require handling large volumes of data at high speed. In data centers, memory and storage are no longer just components; they become integral to system performance.
Will the sector’s growth in 2026 depend solely on data centers?
According to Omdia, the growth engine is highly concentrated: without the push from memory and logic, overall growth would be significantly lower. Still, consumer electronics and mobility also contribute, albeit with less relative weight.
What could slow down this upward cycle of chips?
Macroeconomic risks (inflation, energy costs), supply chain disruptions, and price volatility linked to massive AI investments. Any slowdown in AI infrastructure CapEx would also impact growth.
via: omdia.tech