The blow to the user’s wallet who needs lots of storage—backup copies, video libraries, photo archives, home NAS devices, or small servers—is no longer just a feeling: it’s becoming a measurable fact. A price analysis of popular HDD models shows that, since September 2025, the cost of conventional units has risen significantly, with an average increase of 46% in just four months. And the most concerning part is the pattern: it doesn’t affect rare or special editions but impacts traditional consumer and NAS ranges.
The benchmark used by much of the community comes from a market review conducted by ComputerBase in Germany, based on a sample of 12 models of storage devices and their monthly evolution. The conclusion is clear: HDDs increase less than RAM or SSDs, but enough to alter purchasing decisions for anyone needing low-cost capacity. Meanwhile, checks in the United States suggest that the trend is also repeating there, and it might be even worse for certain models and sales channels.
The key data point shaping the new landscape: from “cheap storage” to “stressed storage”
For years, mechanical hard drives were the safe haven for those needing terabytes without breaking the bank. That rule is starting to break down. In the European sample, increases range approximately from 23% to 66%, with an average close to 46% since September. A symbol of this change in the consumer space is a very well-known model: the Seagate BarraCuda 24TB, which during promotional periods was available for just over $239, and now appears around $499 on Amazon in the U.S., with irregular availability and sometimes sold through third parties.
This jump not only makes a single purchase more expensive; it completely shifts the strategy for those planning NAS expansions or calculating costs for building a home backup server. When a 24 TB drive goes from being “an occasional bargain” to nearly $500, the market sends a clear message: bulk storage is once again a scarce commodity.
Comparison table: real examples of HDD price hikes (September 2025 → January 2026)
| Model (orientation) | Capacity | Price Sep. 2025 | Price Jan. 2026 | Variation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seagate IronWolf NAS + Rescue | 4 TB | 93.94 € | 131.90 € | +40.41% |
| WD Red Plus | 8 TB | 169.90 € | 255.00 € | +50.09% |
| Toshiba Cloud-Scale MG10ACA | 20 TB | 309.59 € | 479.90 € | +55.01% |
| Toshiba Cloud-Scale MG10F AFA | 22 TB | 336.47 € | 558.99 € | +66.13% |
| Seagate BarraCuda | 24 TB | 307.90 € | 499.90 € | +62.36% |
| Seagate IronWolf Pro NAS + Rescue | 16 TB | 312.99 € | 384.99 € | +23.00% |
Average (sample of 12 models): +46.41%
The awkward question: why are HDDs increasing in price if the media focus is on RAM and SSDs?
The short answer is that AI is reshuffling industrial priorities. The longer explanation involves three factors that, combined, tighten the market:
- Data center demand for storage
Large-scale AI deployments not only consume GPUs and memory: they also require massive storage for datasets, logs, checkpoints, and training/inference files. While some of this relies on enterprise SSDs, HDDs remain the preferred choice for volume, given their cost per terabyte for “multi-petabyte” setups. - Shift in production mix towards enterprise ranges
When industry sees profit opportunities in nearline units and higher-capacity models for data centers, focus shifts accordingly. This well-known phenomenon means that as high-capacity, high-value drives become more prominent, the average market price tends to go up. In other words, even if HDDs “don’t depend” directly on DRAM, they depend on an industrial supply chain prioritizing more profitable segments. - Irregular availability and more speculative sales channels
As specific models become scarce or stock in large retailers diminishes, sales through third-party resellers increase. The result is a less transparent market, prices “anchored” to the expectation of further increases, and reduced competitive pressure on some references.
The consumer caught between “need capacity” and “pay premiums”
The issue isn’t just for enthusiasts. The price hikes affect:
- Users making personal backups (photos, mobile videos, 4K/8K footage).
- Small businesses with NAS for accounting, documentation, design, or video projects.
- Content creators archiving raw material.
- Home admins setting up home servers for backups, Plex/Jellyfin, or lightweight virtualization.
When HDDs are no longer “cheap,” users look for alternatives. But here’s another trap: SSDs are also rising sharply in this cycle, and cloud storage—besides being a recurring cost—may be unfeasible for those handling dozens of terabytes.
What might happen next?
In the short term, the market seems driven by a structural reality: increased industrial storage demand and a consumer market that is no longer the top priority. That doesn’t mean prices will keep rising endlessly, but the “cheap bottom” many users had grown accustomed to could take longer to return.
And an important nuance: if manufacturers accelerate launches of higher capacities for professional segments, pressure on popular consumer models could persist, because the channel adjusts to the idea that “bigger always costs more.”
How to protect yourself without impulsive buying
In this context, the most repeated advice among integrators and advanced users is pragmatic:
- Plan capacity with a margin: buying “just enough” is costly if the next step involves another +20% increase.
- Avoid opaque third parties when the disk becomes an investment (warranty, origin, RMA).
- Compare €/TB real costs and not just the final price: some NAS ranges have increased less than certain consumer models.
- Review certified refurbished options in environments where acceptable (and always with clear guarantees).
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are NAS HDD prices skyrocketing in 2026?
Because the market is prioritizing storage demand for data centers and high-capacity segments, reducing competition in consumer ranges and tightening stock availability for popular models.
What does it mean that a 24 TB HDD now costs almost twice what it did months ago?
It indicates that domestic bulk storage is no longer a “cheap commodity” and now depends on supply, sales channels, and industrial priorities, with more volatile prices.
Is it better to buy several medium-sized drives instead of one large one?
It depends on usage. For NAS, multiple drives can improve resilience (RAID/ZFS), but increase power consumption, required bays, and failure probability. With tense prices, it’s advisable to compare €/TB and total system costs (including the NAS enclosure).
Is it better to wait for HDD prices to drop or buy now?
For urgent capacity needs or critical backups, delaying might be costlier if prices continue to rise. For non-critical upgrades, monitoring occasional deals from trusted distributors could pay off.
via: tomshardware