OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has recently suggested that superintelligent artificial intelligence could emerge in just a few thousand days, marking a potentially transformative moment in human history that could usher in an era of unprecedented prosperity and capabilities.
In a blog post titled “The Era of Intelligence,” dated September 23, 2024, Altman outlines his vision of how artificial intelligence (AI) will give people tools to solve complex problems and accelerate human progress in ways previously unimaginable. He predicts the development of personal AI teams with virtual experts in various fields, capable of creating almost anything we can imagine.
Future Applications and Shared Prosperity
Altman anticipates future applications that could include personalized AI tutors, improvements in healthcare, and the ability to create any kind of software on demand. He emphasizes the need for abundant computing power and energy to make AI widely accessible, potentially leading to a new “Era of Intelligence” characterized by human prosperity and scientific advances.
“With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity to a degree that now seems unimaginable; in the future, everyone’s life can be better than anyone’s now,” Altman writes in his blog.
The Role of Deep Learning and Future Challenges
According to Altman, the success of deep learning has been crucial in reaching the threshold of the next leap in prosperity. He highlights that deep learning works and improves predictably with scale, and by dedicating increasing resources to this technology, difficult problems can be solved and people’s lives can be significantly improved worldwide.
However, he also acknowledges the challenges that come with this advancement and the need to act with wisdom and conviction. “It won’t be an entirely positive story, but the potential is so tremendous that we owe it to ourselves, and the future, to figure out how to navigate the risks ahead,” Altman states.
Optimism about the Future
Altman, who as OpenAI CEO is aware of the current capabilities of AI more than almost anyone else on the planet, is hyper-optimistic about the future. Whether superintelligence arrives in 5-10 years or 25-30 years, he maintains that it is inevitable and will change everything.
“I believe the future is going to be so bright that no one can do it justice writing about it now; a defining feature of the Era of Intelligence will be massive prosperity,” he concludes.
Reflections on Society’s Impact
While acknowledging there will be challenges, including significant changes in job markets, Altman asserts that people will always have an innate desire to create and be useful to each other, and that AI will enable us to amplify our own abilities like never before.
“With almost unlimited intelligence and abundant energy—the ability to generate big ideas and the ability to make them real—we can do a lot,” he points out.
Altman’s forecast prompts reflection on the role artificial intelligence will play in the near future and how society can prepare for the changes this technology will bring.
More on Sam Altman’s blog.